气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying Dynamical Proxy Potential Through Shared Adjustment Physics in the North Atlantic

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DOI	10.1029/2020JC016112
	Quantifying Dynamical Proxy Potential Through Shared Adjustment Physics in the North Atlantic
	Loose N.; Heimbach P.; Pillar H.R.; Nisancioglu K.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699275
卷号	125 期号:9
英文摘要	Oceanic quantities of interest (QoIs), for example, ocean heat content or transports, are often inaccessible to direct observation, due to the high cost of instrument deployment and logistical challenges. Therefore, oceanographers seek proxies for undersampled or unobserved QoIs. Conventionally, proxy potential is assessed via statistical correlations, which measure covariability without establishing causality. This paper introduces an alternative method: quantifying dynamical proxy potential. Using an adjoint model, this method unambiguously identifies the physical origins of covariability. A North Atlantic case study illustrates our method within the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) state estimation framework. We find that wind forcing along the eastern and northern boundaries of the Atlantic drives a basin-wide response in North Atlantic circulation and temperature. Due to these large-scale teleconnections, a single subsurface temperature observation in the Irminger Sea informs heat transport across the remote Iceland-Scotland ridge (ISR), with a dynamical proxy potential of 19%. Dynamical proxy potential allows two equivalent interpretations: Irminger Sea subsurface temperature (i) shares 19% of its adjustment physics with ISR heat transport and (ii) reduces the uncertainty in ISR heat transport by 19% (independent of the measured temperature value), if the Irminger Sea observation is added without noise to the ECCO state estimate. With its two interpretations, dynamical proxy potential is simultaneously rooted in (i) ocean dynamics and (ii) uncertainty quantification and optimal observing system design, the latter being an emerging branch in computational science. The new method may therefore foster dynamics-based, quantitative ocean observing system design in the coming years. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	adjoint model; North Atlantic; observing system design; proxy; teleconnection; uncertainty quantification
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186705
作者单位	Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States; Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States; Institute for Geophysics, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, and Centre for Earth Evolution and Dynamics, Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Loose N.,Heimbach P.,Pillar H.R.,et al. Quantifying Dynamical Proxy Potential Through Shared Adjustment Physics in the North Atlantic[J],2020,125(9).
APA	Loose N.,Heimbach P.,Pillar H.R.,&Nisancioglu K.H..(2020).Quantifying Dynamical Proxy Potential Through Shared Adjustment Physics in the North Atlantic.Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,125(9).
MLA	Loose N.,et al."Quantifying Dynamical Proxy Potential Through Shared Adjustment Physics in the North Atlantic".Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125.9(2020).