气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tidally Driven Interannual Variation in Extreme Sea Level Frequencies in the Gulf of Maine

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JC016291
	Tidally Driven Interannual Variation in Extreme Sea Level Frequencies in the Gulf of Maine
	Baranes H.E.; Woodruff J.D.; Talke S.A.; Kopp R.E.; Ray R.D.; DeConto R.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699275
卷号	125 期号:10
英文摘要	Astronomical variations in tidal magnitude can strongly modulate the severity of coastal flooding on daily, monthly, and interannual timescales. Here we present a new quasi-nonstationary skew surge joint probability method (qn-SSJPM) that estimates interannual fluctuations in flood hazard caused by the 18.6- and quasi 4.4-year modulations of tides. We demonstrate that qn-SSJPM-derived storm tide frequency estimates are more precise and stable compared with the standard practice of fitting an extreme value distribution to measured storm tides, which is often biased by the largest few events within the observational period. Applying the qn-SSJPM in the Gulf of Maine, we find significant tidal forcing of winter storm season flood hazard by the 18.6-year nodal cycle, whereas 4.4-year modulations and a secular trend in tides are small compared to interannual variation and long-term trends in sea-level. The nodal cycle forces decadal oscillations in the 1% annual chance storm tide at an average rate of ±13.5 mm/year in Eastport, ME; ±4.0 mm/year in Portland, ME; and ±5.9 mm/year in Boston, MA. Currently (in 2020), nodal forcing is counteracting the sea-level rise-induced increase in flood hazard; however, in 2025, the nodal cycle will reach a minimum and then begin to accelerate flood hazard increase as it moves toward its maximum phase over the subsequent decade. Along the world's meso-to-macrotidal coastlines, it is therefore critical to consider both sea-level rise and tidal nonstationarity in planning for the transition to chronic flooding that will be driven by sea-level rise in many regions over the next century. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	coastal flooding; extreme sea levels; gulf of Maine; joint probability; nodal cycle; tides
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186634
作者单位	Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Geodesy and Geophysics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Baranes H.E.,Woodruff J.D.,Talke S.A.,et al. Tidally Driven Interannual Variation in Extreme Sea Level Frequencies in the Gulf of Maine[J],2020,125(10).
APA	Baranes H.E.,Woodruff J.D.,Talke S.A.,Kopp R.E.,Ray R.D.,&DeConto R.M..(2020).Tidally Driven Interannual Variation in Extreme Sea Level Frequencies in the Gulf of Maine.Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,125(10).
MLA	Baranes H.E.,et al."Tidally Driven Interannual Variation in Extreme Sea Level Frequencies in the Gulf of Maine".Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125.10(2020).