气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploring Sources of Uncertainty in Steric Sea-Level Change Estimates

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JC016551
	Exploring Sources of Uncertainty in Steric Sea-Level Change Estimates
	Camargo C.M.L.; Riva R.E.M.; Hermans T.H.J.; Slangen A.B.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699275
卷号	125 期号:10
英文摘要	Recent studies disagree about the contribution of variations in temperature and salinity of the oceans—steric change—to the observed sea-level change. This article explores two sources of uncertainty to both global mean and regional steric sea-level trends. First, we analyze the influence of different temperature and salinity data sets on the estimated steric sea-level change. Next, we investigate the impact of different stochastic noise models on the estimation of trends and their uncertainties. By varying both the data sets and noise models, the global mean steric sea-level trend and uncertainty can vary from 0.69 to 2.40 and 0.02 to 1.56 mm/year, respectively, for 1993–2017. This range is even larger on regional scales, reaching up to 30 mm/year. Our results show that a first-order autoregressive model is the most appropriate choice to describe the residual behavior of the ensemble mean of all data sets for the global mean steric sea-level change over the last 25 years, which consequently leads to the most representative uncertainty. Using the ensemble mean and the first-order autoregressive noise model, we find a global mean steric sea-level change of 1.36 ± 0.10 mm/year for 1993–2017 and 1.08 ± 0.07 mm/year for 2005–2015. Regionally, a combination of different noise models is the best descriptor of the steric sea-level change and its uncertainty. The spatial coherence in the noise model preference indicates clusters that may be best suited to investigate the regional sea-level budget. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	global mean sea-level change; regional sea-level change; steric sea-level change; stochastic noise models; temperature and salinity data sets
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186629
作者单位	Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and Utrecht University, Yerseke, Netherlands; Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Camargo C.M.L.,Riva R.E.M.,Hermans T.H.J.,et al. Exploring Sources of Uncertainty in Steric Sea-Level Change Estimates[J],2020,125(10).
APA	Camargo C.M.L.,Riva R.E.M.,Hermans T.H.J.,&Slangen A.B.A..(2020).Exploring Sources of Uncertainty in Steric Sea-Level Change Estimates.Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,125(10).
MLA	Camargo C.M.L.,et al."Exploring Sources of Uncertainty in Steric Sea-Level Change Estimates".Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125.10(2020).