气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal Prediction of Bottom Temperature on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2021JC017187
	Seasonal Prediction of Bottom Temperature on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf
	Chen Z.; Kwon Y.-O.; Chen K.; Fratantoni P.; Gawarkiewicz G.; Joyce T.M.; Miller T.J.; Nye J.A.; Saba V.S.; Stock B.C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	21699275
卷号	126 期号:5
英文摘要	The Northeast U.S. shelf (NES) is an oceanographically dynamic marine ecosystem and supports some of the most valuable demersal fisheries in the world. A reliable prediction of NES environmental variables, particularly ocean bottom temperature, could lead to a significant improvement in demersal fisheries management. However, the current generation of climate model-based seasonal-to-interannual predictions exhibits limited prediction skill in this continental shelf environment. Here, we have developed a hierarchy of statistical seasonal predictions for NES bottom temperatures using an eddy-resolving ocean reanalysis data set. A simple, damped local persistence prediction model produces significant skill for lead times up to ∼5 months in the Mid-Atlantic Bight and up to ∼10 months in the Gulf of Maine, although the prediction skill varies notably by season. Considering temperature from a nearby or upstream (i.e., more poleward) region as an additional predictor generally improves prediction skill, presumably as a result of advective processes. Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indices, such as Gulf Stream path indices (GSIs) and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, are also tested as predictors for NES bottom temperatures. Only the GSI constructed from temperature observed at 200 m depth significantly improves the prediction skill relative to local persistence. However, the prediction skill from this GSI is not larger than that gained using models incorporating nearby or upstream shelf/slope temperatures. Based on these results, a simplified statistical model has been developed, which can be tailored to fisheries management for the NES. © 2021. The Authors.
英文关键词	bottom temperature; Northeast U.S. shelf; seasonal prediction
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186352
作者单位	Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; National Research Council Postdoctoral Associateship Program, Hosted by NOAA NMFS, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA, United States; NOAA NMFS, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA, United States; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Institute of Marine Sciences, Morehead City, NC, United States; NOAA NMFS, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen Z.,Kwon Y.-O.,Chen K.,et al. Seasonal Prediction of Bottom Temperature on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf[J],2021,126(5).
APA	Chen Z..,Kwon Y.-O..,Chen K..,Fratantoni P..,Gawarkiewicz G..,...&Stock B.C..(2021).Seasonal Prediction of Bottom Temperature on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,126(5).
MLA	Chen Z.,et al."Seasonal Prediction of Bottom Temperature on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf".Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 126.5(2021).