气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Impact of Southern Ocean Ekman Pumping, Heat and Freshwater Flux Variability on Intermediate and Mode Water Export in CMIP Models: Present and Future Scenarios

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DOI	10.1029/2021JC017173
	The Impact of Southern Ocean Ekman Pumping, Heat and Freshwater Flux Variability on Intermediate and Mode Water Export in CMIP Models: Present and Future Scenarios
	Almeida L.; Mazloff M.R.; Mata M.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	21699275
卷号	126 期号:6
英文摘要	Subduction in the Antarctic circumpolar region of the Southern Ocean (SO) results in the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). Theoretical understanding predicts that subduction rates of these waters masses is driven by wind stress curl and buoyancy fluxes. The objective of this work is to evaluate the extent to which AAIW and SAMW variability are correlated to SO air-sea fluxes and how potential changes to those forcings would impact the future water mass export rates. We correlate the water mass volume transport at 30°S with Ekman pumping, freshwater and heat fluxes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The export of these water masses varies across models, with most overestimating the total transport. Correlation coefficients between the air-sea fluxes and exports are consistent with theoretical expectations. In the picontrol/historical scenarios, the highest correlations with AAIW export variability are heat flux, while Ekman pumping best explains SAMW. However, multivariate regressions show that both AAIW and SAMW export variability are better explained using the combination of all three fluxes. In future scenario simulations air-sea fluxes trend significantly in the catastrophic scenario (RCP8.5 and SSP8.5). Both AAIW and SAMW are still highly correlated to the fluxes, but with different correlation coefficients. The dominant forcing components even change from the present simulations to the future scenario runs. Thus, correlations between AAIW and SAMW transports and air-sea fluxes are not stationary in time, limiting the predictive skill of statistical models and highlighting the importance of using complex climate models. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	air-sea exchange; climate; climate models; physical ocean; Southern Ocean; water masses
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186269
作者单位	Laboratório de Estudos dos Oceanos e Clima (LEOC), Instituto de Oceanografia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG), Rio Grande, RS, Brazil; Scripps Intitute of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Almeida L.,Mazloff M.R.,Mata M.M.. The Impact of Southern Ocean Ekman Pumping, Heat and Freshwater Flux Variability on Intermediate and Mode Water Export in CMIP Models: Present and Future Scenarios[J],2021,126(6).
APA	Almeida L.,Mazloff M.R.,&Mata M.M..(2021).The Impact of Southern Ocean Ekman Pumping, Heat and Freshwater Flux Variability on Intermediate and Mode Water Export in CMIP Models: Present and Future Scenarios.Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,126(6).
MLA	Almeida L.,et al."The Impact of Southern Ocean Ekman Pumping, Heat and Freshwater Flux Variability on Intermediate and Mode Water Export in CMIP Models: Present and Future Scenarios".Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 126.6(2021).