气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere

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DOI	10.1029/2019JD030920
	The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere
	Domeisen D.I.V.; Butler A.H.; Charlton-Perez A.J.; Ayarzagüena B.; Baldwin M.P.; Dunn-Sigouin E.; Furtado J.C.; Garfinkel C.I.; Hitchcock P.; Karpechko A.Y.; Kim H.; Knight J.; Lang A.L.; Lim E.-P.; Marshall A.; Roff G.; Schwartz C.; Simpson I.R.; Son S.-W.; Taguchi M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:2
英文摘要	The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S predictability within the stratosphere is however still limited. This study evaluates to what extent predictability in the extratropical stratosphere exists in hindcasts of operational prediction systems in the S2S database. The stratosphere is found to exhibit extended predictability as compared to the troposphere. Prediction systems with higher stratospheric skill tend to also exhibit higher skill in the troposphere. The analysis also includes an assessment of the predictability for stratospheric events, including early and midwinter sudden stratospheric warming events, strong vortex events, and extreme heat flux events for the Northern Hemisphere and final warming events for both hemispheres. Strong vortex events and final warming events exhibit higher levels of predictability as compared to sudden stratospheric warming events. In general, skill is limited to the deterministic range of 1 to 2 weeks. High-top prediction systems overall exhibit higher stratospheric prediction skill as compared to their low-top counterparts, pointing to the important role of stratospheric representation in S2S prediction models. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	S2S database; stratosphere; sub-seasonal predictability; sudden stratospheric warming
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186232
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States; Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Departamento Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Instituto Geociencias, CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Global Systems Institute and Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre, Bergen, Norway; School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Finnish M...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Domeisen D.I.V.,Butler A.H.,Charlton-Perez A.J.,et al. The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere[J],2020,125(2).
APA	Domeisen D.I.V..,Butler A.H..,Charlton-Perez A.J..,Ayarzagüena B..,Baldwin M.P..,...&Taguchi M..(2020).The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(2).
MLA	Domeisen D.I.V.,et al."The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.2(2020).