气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in Extreme Climate Events in China Under 1.5 °C–4 °C Global Warming Targets: Projections Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019JD031057
	Changes in Extreme Climate Events in China Under 1.5 °C–4 °C Global Warming Targets: Projections Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations
	Wu J.; Han Z.; Xu Y.; Zhou B.; Gao X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:2
英文摘要	Extreme climate events in China, including its 10 main river basins, were projected under global warming of 1.5 °C–4 °C using the latest version of a regional climate model (RegCM4) for dynamical downscaling, driven by the outputs of four global climate models. Firstly, evaluation indicated that the simulations satisfactorily reproduced the spatial distribution of temperature extremes and, although with lower performance, the spatial distributions of precipitation extremes were generally captured. Additionally, a better description was achieved over areas with complex terrains by using RegCM4. Next, the model was used to make projections under global warming of 1.5 °C–4 °C. Warm extremes were projected to increase, while cold events were projected to decrease, particularly in northern and western China. In addition, the number of wet days was projected to increase in the northern part of China, and to decrease in the southern part. The maximum consecutive five-day precipitation and the precipitation intensity were projected to increase significantly throughout China, while the consecutive number of dry days was projected to significantly decrease in northern and western China. The changes of atmospheric moisture content and atmospheric circulation lead to the increase of extreme precipitation. Specifically, the increases in the indices of wetness were closely correlated with the summer precipitation, wind, moisture flux convergence, and surface specific humidity, while the consecutive number of dry days was related to the change in summer moisture flux convergence and precipitation in dry seasons. Notably, the magnitude of the changes in extremes events was projected to increase as the warming target increases. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	1.5 °C–4 °C global warming; : regional climate model; China; extreme climate events
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186217
作者单位	National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu J.,Han Z.,Xu Y.,等. Changes in Extreme Climate Events in China Under 1.5 °C–4 °C Global Warming Targets: Projections Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations[J],2020,125(2).
APA	Wu J.,Han Z.,Xu Y.,Zhou B.,&Gao X..(2020).Changes in Extreme Climate Events in China Under 1.5 °C–4 °C Global Warming Targets: Projections Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(2).
MLA	Wu J.,et al."Changes in Extreme Climate Events in China Under 1.5 °C–4 °C Global Warming Targets: Projections Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.2(2020).