气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

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DOI	10.1029/2019JD030923
	The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling
	Domeisen D.I.V.; Butler A.H.; Charlton-Perez A.J.; Ayarzagüena B.; Baldwin M.P.; Dunn-Sigouin E.; Furtado J.C.; Garfinkel C.I.; Hitchcock P.; Karpechko A.Y.; Kim H.; Knight J.; Lang A.L.; Lim E.-P.; Marshall A.; Roff G.; Schwartz C.; Simpson I.R.; Son S.-W.; Taguchi M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:2
英文摘要	The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S prediction systems to capture two important links between the stratosphere and troposphere: (1) changes in probabilistic prediction skill in the extratropical stratosphere by precursors in the tropics and the extratropical troposphere and (2) changes in surface predictability in the extratropics after stratospheric weak and strong vortex events. Probabilistic skill exists for stratospheric events when including extratropical tropospheric precursors over the North Pacific and Eurasia, though only a limited set of models captures the Eurasian precursors. Tropical teleconnections such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation increase the probabilistic skill of the polar vortex strength, though these are only captured by a limited set of models. At the surface, predictability is increased over the United States, Russia, and the Middle East for weak vortex events, but not for Europe, and the change in predictability is smaller for strong vortex events for all prediction systems. Prediction systems with poorly resolved stratospheric processes represent this skill to a lesser degree. Altogether, the analyses indicate that correctly simulating stratospheric variability and stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling are critical elements for skillful S2S wintertime predictions. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	North Atlantic Oscillation; S2S database; stratosphere; stratosphere - troposphere coupling; sub-seasonal predictability; sudden stratospheric warming
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186215
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States; Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Departamento Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Instituto Geociencias, CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Global Systems Institute and Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre, Bergen, Norway; School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Finnish M...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Domeisen D.I.V.,Butler A.H.,Charlton-Perez A.J.,et al. The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling[J],2020,125(2).
APA	Domeisen D.I.V..,Butler A.H..,Charlton-Perez A.J..,Ayarzagüena B..,Baldwin M.P..,...&Taguchi M..(2020).The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(2).
MLA	Domeisen D.I.V.,et al."The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.2(2020).