气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Impact of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019JD031849
	The Impact of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone
	Fleming E.L.; Newman P.A.; Liang Q.; Daniel J.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:3
英文摘要	Trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11, CFCl3) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas, and its production and consumption are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, recent studies show that CFC-11 emissions have been near constant or increasing since 2002. In this study, we use a two-dimensional chemistry-climate model to investigate the stratospheric ozone response to a range of future CFC-11 emissions scenarios. A scenario with future emissions sustained at 10 gigagrams per year (Gg/year) above the baseline WMO (2018) A1 scenario results in minor additional global (90°S–90°N) ozone depletion of 0.13% by 2100, and a 1.5-year delay in the global ozone recovery to 1980 levels, relative to the baseline. A scenario with 72.5 Gg/year (the 2013–2016 average) sustained to 2100 results in a substantial 15% increase in effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine and nearly 1% additional global ozone depletion by 2100, with a 7.5-year delay in the recovery to 1980 global ozone levels, relative to the baseline. The ozone response averaged over time has a strong linear dependence on the cumulative amount of future CFC-11 emissions under a wide range of scenarios. The resulting ozone response sensitivity gives a simple metric relating the time-averaged ozone change to the cumulative CFC-11 emissions. This sensitivity has an inverse dependence on future greenhouse gas concentrations (CO2, CH4, and N2O). For the medium Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway-6.0 scenario, the sensitivity per 1,000 Gg of cumulative CFC-11 emissions is −0.1% and −1% for global and Antarctic spring ozone, respectively. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	CFC-11 emissions; greenhouse gas scenarios; ozone depletion; stratospheric ozone
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186193
作者单位	NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States; Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fleming E.L.,Newman P.A.,Liang Q.,et al. The Impact of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone[J],2020,125(3).
APA	Fleming E.L.,Newman P.A.,Liang Q.,&Daniel J.S..(2020).The Impact of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(3).
MLA	Fleming E.L.,et al."The Impact of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.3(2020).