气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019JD031273
	Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models
	Son S.-W.; Kim H.; Song K.; Kim S.-W.; Martineau P.; Hyun Y.-K.; Kim Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:4
英文摘要	The deterministic prediction skill of the 10 operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project is assessed for both the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere. Based on the mean squared skill score of 50- and 500-hPa geopotential height forecasts, the overall prediction skill is on average 16 days in the stratosphere and 9 days in the troposphere. The high-top models with a fully resolved stratosphere typically have a higher prediction skill than the low-top models. Among them, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows the best performance in both hemispheres. The decomposition of model errors reveals that eddy errors are more important than zonal-mean errors in both the stratosphere and troposphere. While the errors in the stratosphere are dominated by planetary-scale eddies, those in the troposphere are equally influenced by planetary- and synoptic-scale eddies. This result indicates that subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction could be improved by better representing planetary-scale wave activities in the model. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Prediction Skill; S2S; Stratosphere; Troposphere
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186152
作者单位	School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Earth System Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Son S.-W.,Kim H.,Song K.,et al. Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models[J],2020,125(4).
APA	Son S.-W..,Kim H..,Song K..,Kim S.-W..,Martineau P..,...&Kim Y..(2020).Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(4).
MLA	Son S.-W.,et al."Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.4(2020).