气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models

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DOI	10.1029/2019JD032345
	Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models
	Ayarzagüena B.; Charlton-Perez A.J.; Butler A.H.; Hitchcock P.; Simpson I.R.; Polvani L.M.; Butchart N.; Gerber E.P.; Gray L.; Hassler B.; Lin P.; Lott F.; Manzini E.; Mizuta R.; Orbe C.; Osprey S.; Saint-Martin D.; Sigmond M.; Taguchi M.; Volodin E.M.; Watanabe S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:6
英文摘要	Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near-surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling. ©2020. American Geophysical Union and Crown copyright. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	climate change; CMIP6; stratosphere-troposphere coupling; sudden stratospheric warming
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186099
作者单位	Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Cooperative Institute for Environmental Sciences (CIRES)/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY, United States; NCAS-Climate, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR) Oberpfaffenhofen, Weßling, Germany; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton Univer...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ayarzagüena B.,Charlton-Perez A.J.,Butler A.H.,et al. Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models[J],2020,125(6).
APA	Ayarzagüena B..,Charlton-Perez A.J..,Butler A.H..,Hitchcock P..,Simpson I.R..,...&Watanabe S..(2020).Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(6).
MLA	Ayarzagüena B.,et al."Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.6(2020).