气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019JD032070
	Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds
	Vogel M.M.; Zscheischler J.; Fischer E.M.; Seneviratne S.I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:9
英文摘要	In 2018 and 2019, heatwaves set all-time temperature records around the world and caused adverse effects on human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and infrastructure. Often, severe impacts relate to the joint spatial and temporal extent of the heatwaves, but most research so far focuses either on spatial or temporal attributes of heatwaves. Furthermore, sensitivity of heatwaves characteristics to the choice of the heatwave thresholds in a warming climate are rarely discussed. Here, we analyze the largest spatiotemporal moderate heatwaves—that is, three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days—in simulations of global climate models. We use three different hazard thresholds to define a hot day: fixed thresholds (time-invariant climatological thresholds), seasonally moving thresholds based on changes in the summer means, and fully moving thresholds (hot days defined relative to the future climatology). We find a substantial increase of spatiotemporally contiguous moderate heatwaves with global warming using fixed thresholds, whereas changes for the other two hazard thresholds are much less pronounced. In particular, no or very little changes in the overall magnitude, spatial extent, and duration are detected when heatwaves are defined relative to the future climatology using a temporally fully moving threshold. This suggests a dominant contribution of thermodynamic compared to dynamic effects in global climate model simulations. The similarity between seasonally moving and fully moving thresholds indicates that seasonal mean warming alone can explain large parts of the warming of extremes. The strong sensitivity of simulated future heatwaves to hazard thresholds should be considered in the projections of potential future heat-related impacts. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	adaptation; climate projections; CMIP5; heatwave; temperature extremes
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186028
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vogel M.M.,Zscheischler J.,Fischer E.M.,et al. Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds[J],2020,125(9).
APA	Vogel M.M.,Zscheischler J.,Fischer E.M.,&Seneviratne S.I..(2020).Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(9).
MLA	Vogel M.M.,et al."Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.9(2020).