气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Factorial Sensitivity Analysis of Physical Schemes and Their Interactions in RegCM

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JD032501
	Factorial Sensitivity Analysis of Physical Schemes and Their Interactions in RegCM
	Song T.; Huang G.; Wang X.; Zhou X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:17
英文摘要	It is well known that the choices of physical schemes in Regional Climate Models (RCMs) can cause considerable uncertainties in future climate projections. In this study, a factorial sensitivity analysis method has been proposed to screen out statistically significant schemes and interactions, which assists in selecting the optimized physical scheme combination from a long-term perspective with affordable computational costs. The Regional Climate Model (RegCM) is used as an example to illustrate how the approach works. In detail, all schemes are fully tested through 120 experimental runs based on a factorial design; the contributions and statistical significance (P value) of individual schemes and their interactions to temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and wind direction are then quantified. The performance of the proposed approach is then demonstrated through a case study of Canada. The results indicate that there exist considerable spatial and temporal simulated variations associated with different scheme combinations. It is also suggested that individual physical schemes have dominant influences on simulated variations, but some effects explained by their interactions are statistically significant and thus cannot be neglected. In particular, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, moisture scheme, and land surface model are found to be the dominant factors affecting the uncertainties of temperature, precipitation, and wind speed in future climate projections over Canada, respectively. Furthermore, the potential relationships between the vegetation cover conditions and the sensitivity of physical schemes are explored. The proposed approach is an attempt to analyze the sensitivity influenced by not only individual physical schemes and also their multilevel interactions. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Canada; factorial design; physical scheme; RegCM4; Regional Climate Model; sensitivity analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185806
作者单位	Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada; School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song T.,Huang G.,Wang X.,et al. Factorial Sensitivity Analysis of Physical Schemes and Their Interactions in RegCM[J],2020,125(17).
APA	Song T.,Huang G.,Wang X.,&Zhou X..(2020).Factorial Sensitivity Analysis of Physical Schemes and Their Interactions in RegCM.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(17).
MLA	Song T.,et al."Factorial Sensitivity Analysis of Physical Schemes and Their Interactions in RegCM".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.17(2020).