气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multivariate Hazard Assessment for Nonstationary Seasonal Flood Extremes Considering Climate Change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JD032780
	Multivariate Hazard Assessment for Nonstationary Seasonal Flood Extremes Considering Climate Change
	Xu P.; Wang D.; Singh V.P.; Lu H.; Wang Y.; Wu J.; Wang L.; Liu J.; Zhang J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:18
英文摘要	In recent years copulas have been widely employed in multivariate modeling of hydrological extremes. However, anthropogenic and climate changes have greatly impacted the probabilistic behavior of these extremes and have challenged the stationarity assumption of the marginal distributions of individual characteristics of the extremes as well as their dependence structure inherent in copula-based modeling. This study developed a dynamic copula-based multivariate risk analysis model (DCM) to analyze seasonal flood extremes (MWL and AMS), observed at Yichang Station in Yangtze River basin, China. The model entailed three parts: (1) Time-varying moment models, combined with log-likelihood ratio tests, were employed to explore whether the trend-caused nonstationarity existed in the marginal distributions or the dependence structure of the seasonal flood extremes; (2) a nonstationary multivariate probability distribution was developed using a dynamic marginal and copula-based model, incorporating different large-scale climate forcings (NAO, SOI, and NINO3.4), meteorological factor (rainfall and temperature) and reservoir index as covariates; and (3) flood hazard was quantified using the multivariate hazard model. The climate-related nonstationarity-based multivariate frequency model through the incorporation of climatic indices would help predict the hazard level of a certain quantile pair for the next year of the observed period. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	dynamic copula; hazard prediction; joint return period; multivariate hydrological design; trend-caused nonstationarity
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185762
作者单位	School of Geographic and Oceanographic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States; National Water Center, UAE University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates; Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu P.,Wang D.,Singh V.P.,et al. Multivariate Hazard Assessment for Nonstationary Seasonal Flood Extremes Considering Climate Change[J],2020,125(18).
APA	Xu P..,Wang D..,Singh V.P..,Lu H..,Wang Y..,...&Zhang J..(2020).Multivariate Hazard Assessment for Nonstationary Seasonal Flood Extremes Considering Climate Change.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(18).
MLA	Xu P.,et al."Multivariate Hazard Assessment for Nonstationary Seasonal Flood Extremes Considering Climate Change".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.18(2020).