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DOI10.1029/2020JD033587
On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble
Aadhar S.; Mishra V.
发表日期2020
ISSN2169897X
卷号125期号:20
英文摘要Recent studies based on the ensemble mean of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs, CMIP6-GCMs hereafter) reported a decline in drought frequency over South Asia in the projected future climate. Here using the simulations from 16 CMIP6-GCMs, we examine the potential causes of declining droughts in South Asia. We show that the projections based on the multimodel ensemble mean CMIP6-GCMs are not reliable over South Asia. The multimodel ensemble mean is influenced mainly by the low-skill GCMs, which show high bias in simulating the monsoon (June–September) season precipitation during the observed period (1951–2014). The low-skill GCMs show a higher (20–30%) increase in the convective precipitation with a rise in the global mean temperature under the warming (1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C worlds) climate. The GCMs with less bias (BEST-GCMs) in the monsoon season precipitation and better seasonal cycle representation show lower sensitivity of convective precipitation to rise in global mean temperature. BEST-GCMs exhibit significantly different projections in comparison to the multimodel ensemble mean from all 16 GCMs (ALL-GCMs). In contrast to ALL-GCMs, BEST-GCMs project an increase in the frequency of droughts in South Asia under the future climate. Therefore, the projected risk of droughts over South Asia under the 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C warming levels is higher than previously reported based on the ensemble mean of CMIP6-GCMs. A projected increase in the drought frequency in South Asia will have considerable implications for agricultural production and water availability. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词CMIP6; drought; multimodel; PET; South Asia; water availability
语种英语
来源期刊Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185705
作者单位Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, India; Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, India
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Aadhar S.,Mishra V.. On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble[J],2020,125(20).
APA Aadhar S.,&Mishra V..(2020).On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(20).
MLA Aadhar S.,et al."On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.20(2020).
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