Climate Change Data Portal
DOI | 10.1029/2020JD033587 |
On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble | |
Aadhar S.; Mishra V. | |
发表日期 | 2020 |
ISSN | 2169897X |
卷号 | 125期号:20 |
英文摘要 | Recent studies based on the ensemble mean of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs, CMIP6-GCMs hereafter) reported a decline in drought frequency over South Asia in the projected future climate. Here using the simulations from 16 CMIP6-GCMs, we examine the potential causes of declining droughts in South Asia. We show that the projections based on the multimodel ensemble mean CMIP6-GCMs are not reliable over South Asia. The multimodel ensemble mean is influenced mainly by the low-skill GCMs, which show high bias in simulating the monsoon (June–September) season precipitation during the observed period (1951–2014). The low-skill GCMs show a higher (20–30%) increase in the convective precipitation with a rise in the global mean temperature under the warming (1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C worlds) climate. The GCMs with less bias (BEST-GCMs) in the monsoon season precipitation and better seasonal cycle representation show lower sensitivity of convective precipitation to rise in global mean temperature. BEST-GCMs exhibit significantly different projections in comparison to the multimodel ensemble mean from all 16 GCMs (ALL-GCMs). In contrast to ALL-GCMs, BEST-GCMs project an increase in the frequency of droughts in South Asia under the future climate. Therefore, the projected risk of droughts over South Asia under the 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C warming levels is higher than previously reported based on the ensemble mean of CMIP6-GCMs. A projected increase in the drought frequency in South Asia will have considerable implications for agricultural production and water availability. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
英文关键词 | CMIP6; drought; multimodel; PET; South Asia; water availability |
语种 | 英语 |
来源期刊 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185705 |
作者单位 | Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, India; Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Aadhar S.,Mishra V.. On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble[J],2020,125(20). |
APA | Aadhar S.,&Mishra V..(2020).On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(20). |
MLA | Aadhar S.,et al."On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.20(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Aadhar S.]的文章 |
[Mishra V.]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Aadhar S.]的文章 |
[Mishra V.]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Aadhar S.]的文章 |
[Mishra V.]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。