气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reply to Comment by E. T. Swenson, D. Das, and J. Shukla on “Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit”

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD033242
	Reply to Comment by E. T. Swenson, D. Das, and J. Shukla on “Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit”
	Saha S.K.; Hazra A.; Pokhrel S.; Chaudhari H.S.; Rai A.; Sujith K.; Rahaman H.; Goswami B.N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:21
英文摘要	Swenson et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033037) (hereafter SN20) raise some technical issues on observed correlations between the synoptic variances and the seasonal mean of area averaged (all-India or central India) Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) reported in Saha et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030082) (hereafter SA19). SN20 did not comment on the other major finding of SA19 on model-based prediction and predictability of the ISMR. Therefore, we focus in this reply only on the observational part of SA19 even though the modeling part is closely related to the observations. While we disagree with SN20 in all three aspects of their comments, we present additional analysis to clarify the scientific basis for our selection of area averaging, the selection of 30-year period for the study and argue that the relevant probability density function of daily rainfall is not that of the individual stations (or grid points) but that of the daily averaged rainfall over a comparable area. On the debate of small area averaging (major point of SN20), we argue that it is physically meaningless in the context of ISMR. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185671
作者单位	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India; Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India; Cotton University, Guwahati, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Saha S.K.,Hazra A.,Pokhrel S.,等. Reply to Comment by E. T. Swenson, D. Das, and J. Shukla on “Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit”[J],2020,125(21).
APA	Saha S.K..,Hazra A..,Pokhrel S..,Chaudhari H.S..,Rai A..,...&Goswami B.N..(2020).Reply to Comment by E. T. Swenson, D. Das, and J. Shukla on “Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit”.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(21).
MLA	Saha S.K.,et al."Reply to Comment by E. T. Swenson, D. Das, and J. Shukla on “Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit”".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.21(2020).