气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic Spatial Meteorological Estimates for Alaska and the Yukon

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JD032696
	Probabilistic Spatial Meteorological Estimates for Alaska and the Yukon
	Newman A.J.; Clark M.P.; Wood A.W.; Arnold J.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:22
英文摘要	It is challenging to develop observationally based spatial estimates of meteorology in Alaska and the Yukon. Complex topography, frozen precipitation undercatch, and extremely sparse in situ observations all limit our capability to produce accurate spatial estimates of meteorological conditions. In this Arctic environment, it is necessary to develop probabilistic estimates of precipitation and temperature that explicitly incorporate spatiotemporally varying uncertainty and bias corrections. In this paper we exploit the recently developed ensemble Climatologically Aided Interpolation (eCAI) system to produce daily historical estimates of precipitation and temperature across Alaska and the Yukon Territory at a 2 km grid spacing for the time period 1980–2013. We extend the previous eCAI method to address precipitation gauge undercatch and wetting loss, which is of high importance for this high-latitude region where much of the precipitation falls as snow. Leave-one-out cross-validation shows our ensemble has little bias in daily precipitation and mean temperature at the station locations, with an overestimate in the daily standard deviation of precipitation. The ensemble is statistically reliable compared to climatology and can discriminate precipitation events across different precipitation thresholds. Long-term mean loss adjusted precipitation is up to 36% greater than the unadjusted estimate in windy areas that receive a large fraction of frozen precipitation, primarily due to wind induced undercatch. Comparing the ensemble mean climatology of precipitation and temperature to PRISM and Daymet v3 shows large interproduct differences, particularly in precipitation across the complex terrain of southeast and northern Alaska. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Arctic; climatology; hydrometeorology; precipitation; spatial interpolation; temperature
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185645
作者单位	National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Saskatchewan Coldwater Lab, Canmore, AB, Canada; Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Climate Preparedness and Resilience Program, Seattle, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Newman A.J.,Clark M.P.,Wood A.W.,et al. Probabilistic Spatial Meteorological Estimates for Alaska and the Yukon[J],2020,125(22).
APA	Newman A.J.,Clark M.P.,Wood A.W.,&Arnold J.R..(2020).Probabilistic Spatial Meteorological Estimates for Alaska and the Yukon.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(22).
MLA	Newman A.J.,et al."Probabilistic Spatial Meteorological Estimates for Alaska and the Yukon".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.22(2020).