气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Sea Ice Extent and Snow Depth Using Stratospheric Ozone Information

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DOI	10.1029/2019JD031770
	Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Sea Ice Extent and Snow Depth Using Stratospheric Ozone Information
	Stone K.A.; Solomon S.; Kinnison D.E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:22
英文摘要	The forecast potential of springtime ozone on April surface temperatures at particular locations in the Northern Hemisphere has been previously reported. Evidence suggests that early springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone acts as a proxy for extreme events in the winter polar vortex. Here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, reanalysis and observations, we extend the forecast potential of ozone on surface temperatures to aspects of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere. Sea ice fraction and sea ice extent differences between years of March high and low Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes show excellent agreement between an ensemble of chemistry-climate model simulations and observations, with differences occurring not just in April but extending through to the following winter season in some locations. Large snow depth differences are also obtained in regional locations in Russia and along the southeast coast of Alaska. These differences remain elevated until early summer, when snow cover diminishes. Using a conditional empirical model in a leave-three-out cross validation method, March total column ozone is able to accurately predict the sign of the observed sea ice extent and snow depth anomalies over 70% of the time during an ozone extreme year, especially in the region of the Bering strait and the Greenland Sea, which could be useful for shipping routes and for testing climate models. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	cryosphere; ozone; stratosphere-troposphere coupling; subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185637
作者单位	Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stone K.A.,Solomon S.,Kinnison D.E.. Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Sea Ice Extent and Snow Depth Using Stratospheric Ozone Information[J],2020,125(22).
APA	Stone K.A.,Solomon S.,&Kinnison D.E..(2020).Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Sea Ice Extent and Snow Depth Using Stratospheric Ozone Information.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(22).
MLA	Stone K.A.,et al."Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Sea Ice Extent and Snow Depth Using Stratospheric Ozone Information".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.22(2020).