气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction and Analysis of Lake Ice Phenology Dynamics Under Future Climate Scenarios Across the Inner Tibetan Plateau

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD033082
	Prediction and Analysis of Lake Ice Phenology Dynamics Under Future Climate Scenarios Across the Inner Tibetan Plateau
	Ruan Y.; Zhang X.; Xin Q.; Qiu Y.; Sun Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:23
英文摘要	How climate change influences lake ice phenology is important in understanding the climate-lake interactions. This study investigates the response of lake ice phenology to future climate scenarios. Thirty-five lakes in the Tibetan Plateau were studied. Firstly, we applied a random forest (RF) model to simulate lake ice condition under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results of the virtual experiments show that lake ice freeze-up start date (FUSD) and break-up end date (BUED) are well simulated by the RF model, with R2FUSD > 0.91 under different RCPs, and R2BUED > 0.84, except in RCP2.6 (R2 = 0.74). Secondly, two non-parametric methods (Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator) were used for analyzing the trends in lake ice phenology and its response to various emission scenarios. Lake ice phenology was largely affected by temperature changes under different RCPs, and it had a larger inter-annual variability in the early period (2002–2050) than in the later period (2050–2099). FUSD of 35 lakes delayed by an average of 0.01, 0.04, and 0.04 days/yr from 2002 to 2098 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, whereas BUED advanced by an average of 0.04, 0.11, and 0.21 days/yr from 2003 to 2099. Both delays in FUSD and advances in BUED contributed to shortened average ice duration of 35 lakes, which shortened by 0.05, 0.14, and 0.25 days/yr from 2002 to 2098 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. These findings could help to tackle the impacts of climate change on the lake systems. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	climate change; lake ice phenology; Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope; random forest model; RCPs; Tibetan Plateau
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185605
作者单位	School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China; The College of Environment and Planning of Henan University, Henan University, Kaifeng, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China; Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ruan Y.,Zhang X.,Xin Q.,et al. Prediction and Analysis of Lake Ice Phenology Dynamics Under Future Climate Scenarios Across the Inner Tibetan Plateau[J],2020,125(23).
APA	Ruan Y.,Zhang X.,Xin Q.,Qiu Y.,&Sun Y..(2020).Prediction and Analysis of Lake Ice Phenology Dynamics Under Future Climate Scenarios Across the Inner Tibetan Plateau.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(23).
MLA	Ruan Y.,et al."Prediction and Analysis of Lake Ice Phenology Dynamics Under Future Climate Scenarios Across the Inner Tibetan Plateau".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.23(2020).