气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Widespread Persistent Extreme Cold Events Over South-East China: Mechanisms, Trends, and Attribution

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD033447
	Widespread Persistent Extreme Cold Events Over South-East China: Mechanisms, Trends, and Attribution
	Freychet N.; Tett S.F.B.; Abatan A.A.; Schurer A.; Feng Z.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:1
英文摘要	South-East China usually experiences mild winter temperatures but can also be impacted by large-scale and long-lasting cold events. Here, we investigate how this category of events has changed during the past 6 decades and why, using both observation and climate model ensembles. We first show that models can reproduce the observed largescale dynamics associated with cold events. A dynamical advection of cold air is mostly responsible not only to trigger cold surges but also we found strong feedback from shortwave radiation, decreasing due to enhanced cloud cover. Recent trends are more difficult to evaluate. Models show a large internal variability and intermodel spread, while observation also indicates large uncertainties in its trend due to high internal variability. Our analysis indicates that even if cold events are likely to have been reduced due to greenhouse gases, trends cannot be attributed with high confidence to any anthropogenic signal alone. However, in the next few decades, the frequency of long-lasting cold events are expected to quickly reduce due to the emerging greenhouse gases signal and possibly weakening aerosol effect over South-East China. We also found that most of the trends are due to the change in the mean temperature. Thus, indirectly, there is no clear evidence that the change in cold event frequency is due to a change in the circulation. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	China; cmip5; cmip6; cold waves; detection-attribution
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185552
作者单位	School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Freychet N.,Tett S.F.B.,Abatan A.A.,et al. Widespread Persistent Extreme Cold Events Over South-East China: Mechanisms, Trends, and Attribution[J],2021,126(1).
APA	Freychet N.,Tett S.F.B.,Abatan A.A.,Schurer A.,&Feng Z..(2021).Widespread Persistent Extreme Cold Events Over South-East China: Mechanisms, Trends, and Attribution.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(1).
MLA	Freychet N.,et al."Widespread Persistent Extreme Cold Events Over South-East China: Mechanisms, Trends, and Attribution".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.1(2021).