气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Large Sensitivity of Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) to Global Warming: Implications of ISMR Projections

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD033511
	Large Sensitivity of Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) to Global Warming: Implications of ISMR Projections
	Rajesh P.V.; Goswami B.N.; Choudhury B.A.; Zahan Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:1
英文摘要	Reliable projections of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) to the next century by climate models is critical for policy toward sustainable development goals but depends on sensitivity of the models simulating ISMR as global mean temperature changes. Here, using observed ISMR and historical global temperature (1850–2005), we find that the mean ISMR scales as (3.95 ± 1.13%)/K, lower than the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling (∼7%/K). However, the sensitivity of the intensity of daily rainfall extremes is (29.5 ± 3.4)%/K, four times as large as the CC scaling. We also find that the sensitivities of simulated mean ISMR by 36 CMIP5 and CMIP6 models each at 13.36%/K and 11.82%/K, respectively, are 2–3 times larger than the observed sensitivity and independent of the chosen period. Larger than simulated CC scaling of ISMR is consistent with simulated strengthening of Indian monsoon circulation in contrast to observations. Models' sensitivity appears to be due to their stronger than observed response to forcing over land resulting in stronger north-south heating gradient and acceleration of monsoon circulation. Projected sensitivity of ISMR in models with increased greenhouse gas forcing weakens compared to the historical period approaching the CC scaling. Required to delineate the contributions of larger than observed intrinsic sensitivity of the models from projected sensitivity, our findings provide a way to correct the bias potentially improving the reliability of ensemble mean projections of ISMR. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	hydrological sensitivity of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185548
作者单位	Department of Physics, Cotton University, Guwahati, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rajesh P.V.,Goswami B.N.,Choudhury B.A.,et al. Large Sensitivity of Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) to Global Warming: Implications of ISMR Projections[J],2021,126(1).
APA	Rajesh P.V.,Goswami B.N.,Choudhury B.A.,&Zahan Y..(2021).Large Sensitivity of Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) to Global Warming: Implications of ISMR Projections.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(1).
MLA	Rajesh P.V.,et al."Large Sensitivity of Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) to Global Warming: Implications of ISMR Projections".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.1(2021).