气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Extreme Cold Events in East Asia With Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Data Sets From ECMWF

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD033860
	Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Extreme Cold Events in East Asia With Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Data Sets From ECMWF
	Dai G.; Mu M.; Li C.; Han Z.; Wang L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:1
英文摘要	Utilizing the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) operational forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the forecast skill for East Asian extreme cold events during 2015–2019 is evaluated. The results from the ensemble mean surface air temperature anomaly, the extreme forecast index, and the continuous ranked probability score skill reveal that extreme cold events can be captured by numerical models with a lead time of 7 days. It is also found that long-persistent extreme cold events tend to have a longer skillful forecast lead time, which can exceed 10 days. The long skillful forecast lead time indicates that these events have a high intrinsic predictability, and the remote sea surface temperature anomaly, tropical intra-seasonal oscillation and stratospheric polar vortex may be possible reasons for this predictability. The results suggest that it may be possible to make S2S and beyond skillful forecasts. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185547
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dai G.,Mu M.,Li C.,et al. Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Extreme Cold Events in East Asia With Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Data Sets From ECMWF[J],2021,126(1).
APA	Dai G.,Mu M.,Li C.,Han Z.,&Wang L..(2021).Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Extreme Cold Events in East Asia With Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Data Sets From ECMWF.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(1).
MLA	Dai G.,et al."Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Extreme Cold Events in East Asia With Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Data Sets From ECMWF".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.1(2021).