气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JD033417
	Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes
	Guo M.; Zhuang Q.; Yao H.; Golub M.; Leung L.R.; Pierson D.; Tan Z.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:4
英文摘要	Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. Here, we assessed the performance of a 1-D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were below 2°C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full-profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71°C and 1.43°C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine-learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing, and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high-latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind-driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with lake depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1-D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185473
作者单位	Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States; Purdue Climate Change Research Center, West Lafayette, IN, United States; Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Ontario Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks, Dorset, ON, Canada; Department of Ecology and Genetics/Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo M.,Zhuang Q.,Yao H.,et al. Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes[J],2021,126(4).
APA	Guo M..,Zhuang Q..,Yao H..,Golub M..,Leung L.R..,...&Tan Z..(2021).Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(4).
MLA	Guo M.,et al."Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.4(2021).