气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential Predictability of the Tropical Cyclone Frequency Over the Western North Pacific With 50-km AGCM Ensemble Experiments

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD034206
	Potential Predictability of the Tropical Cyclone Frequency Over the Western North Pacific With 50-km AGCM Ensemble Experiments
	Ogata T.; Taguchi B.; Yamamoto A.; Nonaka M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:7
英文摘要	The potential predictability determined by sea surface temperature (SST) of the frequency distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) is studied using ensemble simulations with a 50-km resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In this experiment, the interannual variability of the TC frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) is primarily determined by SST, as the simulated ensemble mean signal is dominant over the ensemble spread and effectively follows the observed TC frequency in June-July-August (JJA). In contrast, the correlation between the observed and simulated TC frequency variability is less significant in September-October-November (SON). To explore the TC frequency-SST linkage, the relationship between the TC frequency variability over the WNP and climate modes determined by SST indices is investigated. Through a correlation analysis, we found that El Niño Modoki is the major driver of the TC frequency variability over the WNP in JJA. Partial correlation analysis further reveals that internal atmospheric dynamics are important for the TC frequency variability over the WNP in SON. These results suggest that the tropical climate mode is responsible for the seasonal predictability of the TC frequency variability over the WNP and that the prediction skill is seasonally dependent with a high (low) skill in JJA (SON). © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	climate variability; tropical cyclones; tropics
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185343
作者单位	Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; School of Sustainable Design, University of Toyama, Toyama, Japan; Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ogata T.,Taguchi B.,Yamamoto A.,et al. Potential Predictability of the Tropical Cyclone Frequency Over the Western North Pacific With 50-km AGCM Ensemble Experiments[J],2021,126(7).
APA	Ogata T.,Taguchi B.,Yamamoto A.,&Nonaka M..(2021).Potential Predictability of the Tropical Cyclone Frequency Over the Western North Pacific With 50-km AGCM Ensemble Experiments.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(7).
MLA	Ogata T.,et al."Potential Predictability of the Tropical Cyclone Frequency Over the Western North Pacific With 50-km AGCM Ensemble Experiments".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.7(2021).