气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD034190
	The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme
	Rao J.; Garfinkel C.I.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:9
英文摘要	Using reanalysis and real-time forecasts from 11 sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) models, the strong stratospheric polar vortex in March 2020 coupled with Arctic ozone loss and their predictability are reported in this study. Arctic ozone reached a minimum value in March 2020 similar to the events in 1997 and 2011. Upward propagation of waves into the stratosphere in winter–early spring was anomalously weak, and the weakened Brewer-Dobson circulation transported less ozone-rich air to the Arctic stratosphere in November 2019–March 2020, which contributes around 40% of the total Arctic ozone loss in March, with the residual mainly explained by the chemical loss. Anomalous upwelling in the Arctic further cooled and intensified the polar vortex for ozone depletion and weak mixing, preventing recovery of ozone in early spring 2020. The polar vortex intensity and Arctic total ozone are strongly coupled, so a prediction of Arctic total ozone becomes possible for S2S models using metrics of the polar vortex as a proxy. The prediction of the strong stratospheric polar vortex in late March 2020 is assessed for four common initializations (February 27, March 5, March 12, and March 19) for S2S models. Displacement of the polar vortex toward the Western Hemisphere can only be forecasted in the two later initializations, and its intensity anomaly is underestimated in nearly all of those forecasts. Therefore, the empirical model using the S2S outputs also underestimates the Arctic total ozone. Despite this underestimation, this extremely strong polar vortex event led to improved surface predictability on subseasonal timescales: near-surface temperature and precipitation are well forecasted 2–3 weeks in advance. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	major Arctic ozone loss; prediction; strong stratospheric polar vortex
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185255
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME) / Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC) / Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rao J.,Garfinkel C.I.. The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme[J],2021,126(9).
APA	Rao J.,&Garfinkel C.I..(2021).The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(9).
MLA	Rao J.,et al."The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.9(2021).