气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Meridional Migration of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis: Joint Contribution of Interhemispheric Temperature Differential and ENSO

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JD034504
	Meridional Migration of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis: Joint Contribution of Interhemispheric Temperature Differential and ENSO
	Zhao H.; Zhao K.; Cao J.; Klotzbach P.J.; Raga G.B.; Ma Z.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:10
英文摘要	This study finds that the meridional migration of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) between June and November over the eastern North Pacific is mainly due to changes in the Hadley circulation and associated changes in the location of the intertropical convergence zone as modulated by ENSO and the interhemispheric temperature differential (ITD). These two factors are largely independent of each other and play significant and nearly equivalent roles in the meridional migration of TCG over the ENP from 1979 to 2018. Through the use of regression models, we find that the combination of these two factors has significant skill in capturing annual TCG meridional distribution over the ENP basin. June–October ENSO, as defined by Niño-3.4, can be skillfully predicted with ∼1 season lead time, while ITD can be skillfully predicted ∼3 seasons in advance. This predictability allows for the potential for seasonal outlooks of TCG meridional movement over the ENP. The influence of ITD on TCG meridional migration over the ENP has repercussions on climate change timescales as well, due to the potential TCG meridional migration over the ENP in response to global warming. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5 scenario, the ITD shows a robust increase among the 23 models of version 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. However, the considerable uncertainty in the model response of ENSO to global warming reduces confidence in projections of TCG meridional migration over the ENP. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Eastern North Pacific; ENSO; interhemispheric temperature difference; meridional migration; tropical cyclogenesis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185190
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, and Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, and Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao H.,Zhao K.,Cao J.,et al. Meridional Migration of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis: Joint Contribution of Interhemispheric Temperature Differential and ENSO[J],2021,126(10).
APA	Zhao H.,Zhao K.,Cao J.,Klotzbach P.J.,Raga G.B.,&Ma Z..(2021).Meridional Migration of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis: Joint Contribution of Interhemispheric Temperature Differential and ENSO.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(10).
MLA	Zhao H.,et al."Meridional Migration of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis: Joint Contribution of Interhemispheric Temperature Differential and ENSO".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.10(2021).