气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Beyond peak emission transfers: historical impacts of globalization and future impacts of climate policies on international emission transfers

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/14693062.2019.1619507
	Beyond peak emission transfers: historical impacts of globalization and future impacts of climate policies on international emission transfers
	Wood R.; Grubb M.; Anger-Kraavi A.; Pollitt H.; Rizzo B.; Alexandri E.; Stadler K.; Moran D.; Hertwich E.; Tukker A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1469-3062
卷号	20 期号:sup1
英文摘要	Globalization of supply chains has resulted in rapid increases in emission transfers from the developing to the developed world. As outsourcing has risen, developed countries have been able to decarbonize domestically, at the expense of increased emissions in developing countries. However, the rapid improvement of carbon efficiency in developing regions together with the post-2008 deceleration in international trade raises the question of whether such embodied emission transfers have peaked. Here we update historical analysis, finding that emission transfers between OECD and non-OECD countries peaked in 2006, and have been declining since. The reversal is principally due to the reduction in the emissions intensity of traded goods, rather than the volume of trade. A more recent decline in embodied emissions transfers is also observed in trade between developing countries. We analyse whether these trends are likely to continue, by exploring a baseline and a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario with the Macro-econometric Energy-Environment-Economy Model (E3ME) model. The results suggest that absolute embodied emissions will plateau at current levels or slowly return to pre-2008- crisis levels, and differences between the NDC and baseline scenarios imply that NDC policies will not result in significant carbon leakage. However, the share of national footprint embodied in imports, at least for countries with ambitious decarbonization policies, will likely increase. This suggests that, despite the world-wide stabilization of emissions transfers, addressing emissions embodied in imports will become increasingly important for reducing carbon footprints. Key policy insights Emissions embodied in imports have plateaued since 2006, and are unlikely to return to the peak of the mid-2000s. For developed countries, as domestic decarbonization occurs, the share of emissions embodied in imports as a percentage of the total national carbon footprint will increase. The Paris NDCs in themselves are unlikely to cause significant carbon leakage. Climate policy will ideally focus on reducing both production and consumption emissions, through a variety of mechanisms, especially centred around international assistance. © 2019, © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	carbon footprint; Consumption-based emissions; energy-environment-economy (E3) modelling; multi-regional input-output; NDCs; scenarios
来源期刊	CLIMATE POLICY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183763
作者单位	Industrial Ecology Programme, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway; Institute of Sustainable Resources, University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom; College of International Studies, Kyung-Hee University, Seoul, South Korea; EPRG, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, University of CambridgeCambridge, United Kingdom; School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States; Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands; Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO, Delft, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wood R.,Grubb M.,Anger-Kraavi A.,et al. Beyond peak emission transfers: historical impacts of globalization and future impacts of climate policies on international emission transfers[J],2020,20(sup1).
APA	Wood R..,Grubb M..,Anger-Kraavi A..,Pollitt H..,Rizzo B..,...&Tukker A..(2020).Beyond peak emission transfers: historical impacts of globalization and future impacts of climate policies on international emission transfers.CLIMATE POLICY,20(sup1).
MLA	Wood R.,et al."Beyond peak emission transfers: historical impacts of globalization and future impacts of climate policies on international emission transfers".CLIMATE POLICY 20.sup1(2020).