气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/14693062.2019.1648235
	Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways
	Gupta D.; Ghersi F.; Vishwanathan S.S.; Garg A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1469-3062
卷号	20 期号:7
英文摘要	Although a rapidly growing economy, India faces many challenges, including in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. Moreover, post-2020 climate actions outlined in India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement envision development along low-carbon emission pathways. With coal providing almost three-quarters of Indian electricity, achieving such targets will have wide-ranging implications for economic activity. Assessing such implications is the focus of our research. To do so, we use a hybrid modelling architecture that combines the strengths of the AIM/Enduse bottom-up model of energy systems and the IMACLIM top-down economy-wide model. This hybrid architecture rests upon an original dataset that brings together national accounting, energy balance and energy price data. We analyse four scenarios ranging to mid-century: business-as-usual (BAU), 2°C, sustainable 2°C and 1.5°C. Our 2°C pathway proves compatible with economic growth close to the 6% yearly rate of BAU from 2012 to 2050, at the cost of reduced household consumption but with significant positive impact on foreign debt accumulation. The latter impact stems from improvement of the trade balance, whose current large deficit is the primary cause of high fossil fuel imports. Further mitigation effort backing our 1.5°C scenario shows slightly higher annual GDP growth, thereby revealing potential synergies between deep environmental performance and economic growth. Structural change assumptions common to our scenarios significantly transform the activity shares of sectors. The envisioned transition will require appropriate policies, notably to manage the conflicting interests of entrenched players in traditional sectors like coal and oil, and the emerging players of the low-carbon economy. Key policy insights Low carbon pathways are compatible with Indian growth despite their high investment costs Moving away from fossil fuel-based energy systems would result in foreign exchange savings to the tune of $1 trillion from 2012 to 2050 for oil imports. Achieving deep decarbonization in India requires higher mobilized capital in renewables and energy efficiency enhancements. Phasing out fossil fuels would, however, require careful balancing of interests between conventional and emerging sector players through just transitions. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	1.5°C; 2°C; climate policy; energy-economy model; India; sustainable development
来源期刊	CLIMATE POLICY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183733
作者单位	Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India; CIRED, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Univ Paris-Saclay, Nogent-sur-Marne, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gupta D.,Ghersi F.,Vishwanathan S.S.,等. Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways[J],2020,20(7).
APA	Gupta D.,Ghersi F.,Vishwanathan S.S.,&Garg A..(2020).Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways.CLIMATE POLICY,20(7).
MLA	Gupta D.,et al."Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways".CLIMATE POLICY 20.7(2020).