气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/14693062.2020.1824891
	Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach
	Pye S.; Broad O.; Bataille C.; Brockway P.; Daly H.E.; Freeman R.; Gambhir A.; Geden O.; Rogan F.; Sanghvi S.; Tomei J.; Vorushylo I.; Watson J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1469-3062
起始页码	249
结束页码	259
卷号	21 期号:2
英文摘要	Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed. A first challenge is the need to represent new mitigation options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide sufficient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy effectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses. Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches. There is a significant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the role that the modelling community can play in providing effective decision support may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years. Key policy insights Energy systems that reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will be radically different to those of today, necessitating a modelling analysis re-think. On modelled options for mitigation, a range of demand-side measures are often absent resulting in a risk of over-reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and leading to concerns over robustness of corresponding pathways. Regarding models for policy, there is significant scope for improvements, including the use of scenarios that help imagine the radical change that will be required, techniques for improving the robustness of emerging strategies, and better alignment with broader policy goals. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	decision support; Energy models; low carbon transitions‌; net-zero emissions
来源期刊	CLIMATE POLICY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183688
作者单位	UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales, Sciences Po, Paris, France; Sustainability Research Institute (SRI), University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute & School of Engineering, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, Germany; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, London, United Kingdom; Ulster University, Belfast, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pye S.,Broad O.,Bataille C.,et al. Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach[J],2021,21(2).
APA	Pye S..,Broad O..,Bataille C..,Brockway P..,Daly H.E..,...&Watson J..(2021).Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach.CLIMATE POLICY,21(2).
MLA	Pye S.,et al."Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach".CLIMATE POLICY 21.2(2021).