气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05691-2
	Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty
	You Q.; Cai Z.; Wu F.; Jiang Z.; Pepin N.; Shen S.S.P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2095
结束页码	2123
英文摘要	The information on the projected climate changes over China is of great importance for preparing the nation’s societal adaptiveness to the future natural ecosystem. This study reports the surface mean temperature changes during 2014–2100 over China and its four sub-regions (Northern China, Northwestern China, Southern China, and the Tibetan Plateau) by analyzing 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) of 20 CMIP6 models has cold biases over China during 1979–2014, with improved performance compared with the CMIP5 models. In contrast, the CMIP6 models simulate well in the spatial climatology with lower warming rates over China. Relative to 1986–2005, the regionally averaged surface mean temperatures from the MMEM over China under SSP126, SSP245, SSP585 scenarios are projected to increase by 1.31 °C, 1.32 °C, 1.45 °C in the near-term (2021–2040), 1.75 °C, 2.06 °C, 2.66 °C in the mid-term (2041–2060), and 1.08 °C, 2.97 °C, 5.62 °C in the long-term (2081–2100), respectively. The CMIP6 models simulate accelerated warming occurs over the Northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting that the arid and semi-arid regions are particularly sensitive to future climate warming. We quantify uncertainty for future projections of temperature changes over China, and the main sources of uncertainty are model and scenario uncertainty particularly for the regions with the largest cold bias. This suggests that the observational constraints on these regions will lead to significant improvements for climatic projections over China. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	China; CMIP6; Future climate change; Near term
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183552
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Room 5002-1, Environmental Science Building, No.2005 Songhu Road, Yangpu, Shanghai, 200438, China; Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System, Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research Institute, Zhuhai, 518057, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, 210044, China; Department of Geography, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	You Q.,Cai Z.,Wu F.,et al. Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty[J],2021.
APA	You Q.,Cai Z.,Wu F.,Jiang Z.,Pepin N.,&Shen S.S.P..(2021).Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	You Q.,et al."Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty".Climate Dynamics (2021).