气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effect of the air–sea coupled system change on the ENSO evolution from boreal spring

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05697-w
	Effect of the air–sea coupled system change on the ENSO evolution from boreal spring
	Fang X.-H.; Zheng F.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2055
结束页码	2074
英文摘要	Realistic simulation and accurate prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still a challenge. One fundamental obstacle is the so-called spring predictability barrier (SPB), which features a low predictive skill of the ENSO with prediction across boreal spring. Our observational analysis shows that the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of the seasonal Niño3.4 index evolution (i.e., from May to the following April) explains nearly 90% of its total variance, and the principle component is almost identical to the Niño3.4 index in the mature phase. This means a good ENSO prediction for a year ranging May-next April can be achieved if the Niño3.4 index in the mature phase is accurately obtained in advance. In this work, by extracting physically oriented variables in the spring, a linear regression approach that can reproduce the mature ENSO phases in observation is firstly proposed. Further investigation indicates that the specific equation, however, is significantly modulated by an interdecadal regime shift in the air–sea coupled system in the tropical Pacific. During 1980–1999, ocean adjustment and vertical processes were dominant, and the recharge oscillator theory was effective to capture the ENSO evolutions. While, during 2000–2018, zonal advection and thermodynamics became important, and successful prediction essentially relies on the wind stress information and their controlled processes, both zonally and meridionally. These results imply that accounting for the interdecadal regime shift of the tropical Pacific coupled system and the dominant processes in spring in modulating the ENSO evolution could reduce the impact of SPB and improve ENSO prediction. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Air–sea interaction; Coupled system change; El Niño-Southern oscillation; Spring predictability barrier
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183550
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China; Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System, Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research Institute, Zhuhai, 518057, China; International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fang X.-H.,Zheng F.. Effect of the air–sea coupled system change on the ENSO evolution from boreal spring[J],2021.
APA	Fang X.-H.,&Zheng F..(2021).Effect of the air–sea coupled system change on the ENSO evolution from boreal spring.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Fang X.-H.,et al."Effect of the air–sea coupled system change on the ENSO evolution from boreal spring".Climate Dynamics (2021).