气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of upwelling-favorable winds in the Peruvian upwelling system under the RCP8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05689-w
	Projection of upwelling-favorable winds in the Peruvian upwelling system under the RCP8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional model
	Chamorro A.; Echevin V.; Dutheil C.; Tam J.; Gutiérrez D.; Colas F.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2125
结束页码	2151
英文摘要	The Peruvian upwelling system (PUS) is the most productive Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (EBUS) of the world ocean. Contrarily to higher latitude EBUSs, there is no consensus yet on the response of upwelling-favorable winds to regional climate change in this region. Global climate models are not able to reproduce the nearshore surface winds, and only a few downscaling studies have been performed by using relatively coarse-grid atmospheric models forced by idealized climate change scenarios. In the present study, the impact of climate change on the PUS upwelling-favorable winds was assessed using a high resolution regional atmospheric model to dynamically downscale the multi-model mean projection of an ensemble of 31 CMIP5 global models under the RCP8.5 worst-case climate scenario. We performed a 10-year retrospective simulation (1994–2003) forced by NCEP2 reanalysis data and a 10-year climate change simulation forced by a climate change forcing (i.e. differences between monthly-mean climatologies for 2080–2100 and 1989–2009) from CMIP5 ensemble added to NCEP2 data. We found that changes in the mean upwelling-favorable winds are weak (less than 0.2 m s−1). Seasonally, summer winds weakly decrease (by 0–5%) whereas winter winds weakly increase (by 0–10%), thus slightly reinforcing the seasonal cycle. A momentum balance shows that the wind changes are mainly driven by the alongshore pressure gradient, except in a local area north of the Paracas peninsula, downstream the main upwelling center, where wind increase in winter is driven by the shoreward advection of offshore momentum. Sensitivity experiments show that the north–south sea surface temperature gradient plays an important role in the wind response along the north and central coasts, superimposed onto the South Pacific Anticyclone large-scale forcing. A reduction (increase) of the gradient induces a wind weakening (strengthening) up to 15% (25%) off the northern coast during summer. This local mechanism is not well represented in global climate models projections, which underlines the strong need for dynamical downscaling of coastal wind in order to study the impact of climate change on the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Ocean–atmosphere interactions; Peruvian upwelling system; Regional climate change; Upwelling-favorable wind
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183548
作者单位	Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Callao, Peru; LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Université/IRD/CNRS/MNHN, Paris, France; Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany; Laboratorio de Ciencias del Mar, Facultad de Ciencias y Filosofía, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chamorro A.,Echevin V.,Dutheil C.,et al. Projection of upwelling-favorable winds in the Peruvian upwelling system under the RCP8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional model[J],2021.
APA	Chamorro A.,Echevin V.,Dutheil C.,Tam J.,Gutiérrez D.,&Colas F..(2021).Projection of upwelling-favorable winds in the Peruvian upwelling system under the RCP8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional model.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Chamorro A.,et al."Projection of upwelling-favorable winds in the Peruvian upwelling system under the RCP8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional model".Climate Dynamics (2021).