气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05726-8
	Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability
	Guigma K.H.; MacLeod D.; Todd M.; Wang Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2415
结束页码	2429
英文摘要	Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, over recent decades. Heat early warning systems are being set up in many regions as a tool to mitigate their effects. Such systems are not yet implemented in the West African Sahel, partly because of insufficient knowledge on the skill of models to predict them. The present study addresses this gap by examining the skill of the ECMWF ENS extended-range forecasting system (ENS-ext) to predict Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead-times. It also assesses the importance of tropical modes of variability, which were previously identified as important large-scale drivers of heatwave occurrence in the Sahel. The results show that ENS-ext is able to predict Sahelian heatwaves with significant skill out to lead-week 2–3. With increasing lead-time, heatwaves are more predictable at nighttime than at daytime. Likewise, the pre-monsoon season heatwaves have a longer predictability than those occurring in late winter. The model is also able to relatively well simulate the observed relationship between heatwave occurrence and tropical mode activity. Furthermore, the prediction skill is better during the active phases of the modes, suggesting that they are good sources of heatwave predictability. Therefore, improving the representation of tropical modes in models will positively impact heatwave prediction at the subseasonal scale in the Sahel, and gain more time and precision for anticipatory actions. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	ECMWF; Heatwaves; Predictability; Sahel; Tropical modes
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183534
作者单位	University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom; University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guigma K.H.,MacLeod D.,Todd M.,et al. Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability[J],2021.
APA	Guigma K.H.,MacLeod D.,Todd M.,&Wang Y..(2021).Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Guigma K.H.,et al."Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability".Climate Dynamics (2021).