气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential predictability of the MJO during easterly and westerly phases of the QBO

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05733-9
	Potential predictability of the MJO during easterly and westerly phases of the QBO
	Mengist C.K.; Seo K.-H.; Ding R.; Son S.-W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	95
结束页码	110
英文摘要	The potential predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter (November–February) is investigated using observational data for the period of 1979–2016. For various MJO indices, nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents are computed to quantify the MJO predictability under the easterly and westerly phases of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (easterly: EQBO and westerly: WQBO). All MJO indices exhibit higher predictability during EQBO winters than during WQBO winters. Excluding strong ENSO years from EQBO and WQBO winters has a limited impact on MJO predictability. The highest potential predictability of 43 days during EQBO winters and 37 days during WQBO winters is found for the MJO index obtained from bandpass-filtered (30–80 days) outgoing longwave radiation and wind data. In contrast, the potential predictability of the MJO from the real-time multivariate MJO index is 21 days during EQBO winters and 13 days during WQBO winters. The longer persistence and less disorganization of the MJO during the EQBO winters lead to the higher predictability for EQBO winters, as compared with that for WQBO winters. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	EQBO and WQBO winters; MJO indices; MJO potential predictability; Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183520
作者单位	BK21 School of Earth and Environmental Systems, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mengist C.K.,Seo K.-H.,Ding R.,et al. Potential predictability of the MJO during easterly and westerly phases of the QBO[J],2021.
APA	Mengist C.K.,Seo K.-H.,Ding R.,&Son S.-W..(2021).Potential predictability of the MJO during easterly and westerly phases of the QBO.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Mengist C.K.,et al."Potential predictability of the MJO during easterly and westerly phases of the QBO".Climate Dynamics (2021).