气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05727-7
	Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory
	Wu Q.; Zhang X.; Church J.A.; Hu J.; Gregory J.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	419
结束页码	450
英文摘要	Long-term behaviour of sea-level rise is an important factor in assessing the impact of climate change on multi-century timescales. Under the stabilisation scenario RCP4.5, Sterodynamic Sea-Level (SdynSL) and ocean density change in the CMIP5 models exhibit distinct patterns over the periods before and after Radiative Forcing (RF) stabilisation (2000–2070 vs. 2100–2300). The stabilisation pattern is more geographically uniform and involves deeper penetration of density change than the transient pattern. In RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, the spatiotemporal evolution of SdynSL change can be approximated as a linear combination of the transient and stabilisation patterns. Specifically, SdynSL change is dominated by the transient pattern when RF increases rapidly, but it is increasingly affected by the stabilisation pattern once RF starts to stabilise. The growth of the stabilisation pattern could persist for centuries after RF ceases increasing. The evolving patterns of SdynSL change can also be approximated as a linear system's responses (characterised by its Green’s function) to time-dependent boundary conditions. By examining SdynSL change simulated in linear system models with different estimates of Green's functions, we find that both the climatological ocean circulation and the ocean's dynamical response to RF play a role in shaping the patterns of SdynSL change. The linear system model is more accurate than the univariate pattern scaling in emulating the CMIP5 SdynSL change beyond 2100. The emergence of the stabilisation pattern leads to a 1–10% decrease in the ocean's expansion efficiency of heat over 2000–2300 in RCP2.6 and 4.5. © 2021, The Author(s).
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183506
作者单位	Meteorology Department, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu Q.,Zhang X.,Church J.A.,et al. Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory[J],2021.
APA	Wu Q.,Zhang X.,Church J.A.,Hu J.,&Gregory J.M..(2021).Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Wu Q.,et al."Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory".Climate Dynamics (2021).