气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05728-6
	Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations
	Torres-Alavez J.A.; Glazer R.; Giorgi F.; Coppola E.; Gao X.; Hodges K.I.; Das S.; Ashfaq M.; Reale M.; Sines T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	565
结束页码	585
英文摘要	The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; CORDEX-CORE; Regional climate model; Tropical cyclones
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183498
作者单位	Earth System Physics, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy; Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Computer Science and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Istituto di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Torres-Alavez J.A.,Glazer R.,Giorgi F.,et al. Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations[J],2021.
APA	Torres-Alavez J.A..,Glazer R..,Giorgi F..,Coppola E..,Gao X..,...&Sines T..(2021).Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Torres-Alavez J.A.,et al."Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations".Climate Dynamics (2021).