气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): CWRF downscaling and understanding of China precipitation projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05759-z
	CWRF downscaling and understanding of China precipitation projections
	Jiang R.; Sun L.; Sun C.; Liang X.-Z.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	653
结束页码	673
英文摘要	The regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) was used to downscale the NCAR Community Climate System Model V4.0 (CCSM4) projection of China precipitation changes from the present (1974–2005) to future (2019–2050) under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. The CWRF downscaling at 30-km improved CCSM4 in capturing observed key precipitation spatiotemporal characteristics, correcting rainband dislocations, seasonal-mean biases, extreme-rainfall underestimates and rainy-day overestimates. For the future, CWRF generally reduced CCSM4 projected changes in magnitude, producing still significant increases mostly in summer for mean precipitation in the Northeast, North China and Southwest and for extreme precipitation in North China, South China and the Southwest. These regional precipitation increases were direct responses to enhanced ascending motions and moisture transports from adjacent oceans as the east Asian jet shrunk westward and the Hadley circulation widened northward under global warming. The identification of such robust physical mechanisms added confidence in the CWRF downscaled regional precipitation changes. Furthermore, the CWRF downscaling corrections were systematically carried from the present into future, accounting for projection uncertainties up to 40%. Regional biases, however, could not be simply removed from projected changes because their correspondences were strongly nonlinear, highlighting CWRF’s ability to project more reliable changes by reducing model structural uncertainties. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183493
作者单位	Climate, Environment and Sustainability Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang R.,Sun L.,Sun C.,et al. CWRF downscaling and understanding of China precipitation projections[J],2021.
APA	Jiang R.,Sun L.,Sun C.,&Liang X.-Z..(2021).CWRF downscaling and understanding of China precipitation projections.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Jiang R.,et al."CWRF downscaling and understanding of China precipitation projections".Climate Dynamics (2021).