气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Bayesian approach to exploring the influence of climate variability modes on fire weather conditions and lightning-ignited wildfires

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05764-2
	A Bayesian approach to exploring the influence of climate variability modes on fire weather conditions and lightning-ignited wildfires
	Bates B.C.; Dowdy A.J.; McCaw L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	951
结束页码	967
英文摘要	Understanding the relationships between large-scale, low-frequency climate variability modes, fire weather conditions and lighting-ignited wildfires has implications for fire-weather prediction, fire management and conservation. This article proposes a Bayesian network framework for quantifying the influence of climate modes on fire weather conditions and occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires. The main objectives are to describe and demonstrate a probabilistic framework for identifying and quantifying the joint and individual relationships that comprise the climate-wildfire system; gain insight into potential causal mechanisms and pathways; gauge the influence of climate modes on fire weather and lightning-ignition relative to that of local-scale conditions alone; assess the predictive skill of the network; and motivate the use of techniques that are intuitive, flexible and for which user‐friendly software is freely available. A case study illustrates the application of the framework to a forested region in southwest Australia. Indices for six climate variability modes are considered along with two hazard variables (observed fire weather conditions and prescribed burn area), and a 41-year record of lightning-ignited wildfire counts. Using the case study data set, we demonstrate that the proposed framework: (1) is based on reasonable assumptions provided the joint density of the variables is converted to multivariate normal; (2) generates a parsimonious and interpretable network architecture; (3) identifies known or partially known relationships between the variables; (4) has potential to be used in a predictive setting for fire weather conditions; and (5) climate modes are more directly related to fire weather conditions than to lightning-ignition counts. © 2021, Crown.
英文关键词	Bayesian networks; Climate modes; Lightning; Wildfire
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183481
作者单位	CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere and School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia; Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Manjimup, WA, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bates B.C.,Dowdy A.J.,McCaw L.. A Bayesian approach to exploring the influence of climate variability modes on fire weather conditions and lightning-ignited wildfires[J],2021.
APA	Bates B.C.,Dowdy A.J.,&McCaw L..(2021).A Bayesian approach to exploring the influence of climate variability modes on fire weather conditions and lightning-ignited wildfires.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Bates B.C.,et al."A Bayesian approach to exploring the influence of climate variability modes on fire weather conditions and lightning-ignited wildfires".Climate Dynamics (2021).