气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Observational analysis of decadal and long-term hydroclimate drivers in the Mediterranean region: role of the ocean–atmosphere system and anthropogenic forcing

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05765-1
	Observational analysis of decadal and long-term hydroclimate drivers in the Mediterranean region: role of the ocean–atmosphere system and anthropogenic forcing
	Suárez-Moreno R.; Kushnir Y.; Seager R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1005
结束页码	1023
英文摘要	Using observations and reanalysis, we develop a robust statistical approach based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to explore the leading drivers of decadal and longer-term Mediterranean hydroclimate variability during the historical, half-year wet season. Accordingly, a series of CCA analyses are conducted with combined, multi-component large-scale drivers of Mediterranean precipitation and surface air temperatures. The results highlight the decadal-scale North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as the leading driver of hydroclimate variations across the Mediterranean basin. Markedly, the decadal variability of Atlantic-Mediterranean sea surface temperatures (SST), whose influence on the Mediterranean climate has so far been proposed as limited to the summer months, is found to enhance the NAO-induced hydroclimate response during the winter half-year season. As for the long-term, century scale trends, anthropogenic forcing, expressed in terms of the global SST warming (GW) signal, is robustly associated with basin-wide increase in surface air temperatures. Our analyses provide more detailed information than has heretofore been presented on the sub-seasonal evolution and spatial dependence of the large-scale climate variability in the Mediterranean region, separating the effects of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing, with the latter linked to a long-term drying of the region due to GW-induced local poleward shift of the subtropical dry zone. The physical understanding of these mechanisms is essential in order to improve model simulations and prediction of the decadal and longer hydroclimatic evolution in the Mediterranean area, which can help in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate the effect of climate variability and change on the vulnerable regional population. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Anthropogenic forcing; Atmospheric circulation; Climate variability; Hydroclimate drivers; Multivariate analysis; Sea surface temperatures
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183477
作者单位	Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Suárez-Moreno R.,Kushnir Y.,Seager R.. Observational analysis of decadal and long-term hydroclimate drivers in the Mediterranean region: role of the ocean–atmosphere system and anthropogenic forcing[J],2021.
APA	Suárez-Moreno R.,Kushnir Y.,&Seager R..(2021).Observational analysis of decadal and long-term hydroclimate drivers in the Mediterranean region: role of the ocean–atmosphere system and anthropogenic forcing.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Suárez-Moreno R.,et al."Observational analysis of decadal and long-term hydroclimate drivers in the Mediterranean region: role of the ocean–atmosphere system and anthropogenic forcing".Climate Dynamics (2021).