气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05787-9
	Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere
	Portal A.; Ruggieri P.; Palmeiro F.M.; García-Serrano J.; Domeisen D.I.V.; Gualdi S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	423
结束页码	437
英文摘要	The predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO). © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Lower-stratosphere wave activity; Meridional eddy heat flux; Seasonal predictions; Stratosphere; Sudden stratospheric warmings
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183448
作者单位	Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, Ecole Normale Superieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, Paris, France; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy; Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy; Group of Meteorology, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Bologna, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Portal A.,Ruggieri P.,Palmeiro F.M.,et al. Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere[J],2021.
APA	Portal A.,Ruggieri P.,Palmeiro F.M.,García-Serrano J.,Domeisen D.I.V.,&Gualdi S..(2021).Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Portal A.,et al."Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere".Climate Dynamics (2021).