气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Observed and projected changes in extreme drought and flood-prone regions over India under CMIP5 RCP8.5 using a new vulnerability index

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05824-7
	Observed and projected changes in extreme drought and flood-prone regions over India under CMIP5 RCP8.5 using a new vulnerability index
	Jena P.; Azad S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
英文摘要	Past versions of the vulnerability indices have shown the ability to detect susceptible regions by assessing climatic and socioeconomic parameters at local scales. These parameters significantly vary over geographic regions, therefore such an index may not be suitable to identify and predict susceptibility over a large domain. The present endeavour aims to develop a new vulnerablity index that identifies and predicts the spatiotemporal imprint of extreme drought and flood cases at various scales in India by analyzing monthly observed and Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) rainfall data at a spatial scale of 1° × 1° from 1901 to 2100. It is proposed by consolidating the outcomes of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at different time scales, such as 3 and 12 months, along with the weights of individual grids. The weights of individual grids are calculated through the occurrence of extreme drought and flood years in the recent past to include a climate change factor in the proposed index. Based on the spatial distribution of high index values, the vulnerable regions concerning extreme droughts are expected to be in the Northeast, Northeast-central, East-coast, West, Northwest, North-central, and some grids in South India. Similarly, vulnerable regions concerning extreme flood cases are likely to be in the Northeast, West-coast, East-coast, and some grids in the Peninsular region. Furthermore, a conceptual model is presented to quantify the severity of extreme cases. The analyses reveal that on the CMIP5 model data, 2024, 2026–2027, 2035, 2036–2037, 2043–2044, 2059–2060, and 2094 are likely to be the most prominent extreme drought years in all India monsoon rainfall, and their impacts will persist for a longer time than others. Similarly, the most prominent extreme flood cases are likely to occur in the year 2076, 2079–2080, 2085, 2090, 2092, and 2099. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183424
作者单位	School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi, Himachal Pradesh 175005, India; Department of Data Science, SCOPE, VIT, Vellore, 632014, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jena P.,Azad S.. Observed and projected changes in extreme drought and flood-prone regions over India under CMIP5 RCP8.5 using a new vulnerability index[J],2021.
APA	Jena P.,&Azad S..(2021).Observed and projected changes in extreme drought and flood-prone regions over India under CMIP5 RCP8.5 using a new vulnerability index.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Jena P.,et al."Observed and projected changes in extreme drought and flood-prone regions over India under CMIP5 RCP8.5 using a new vulnerability index".Climate Dynamics (2021).