气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05828-3
	Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves
	Prodhomme C.; Materia S.; Ardilouze C.; White R.H.; Batté L.; Guemas V.; Fragkoulidis G.; García-Serrano J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
英文摘要	Under the influence of global warming, heatwaves are becoming a major threat in many parts of the world, affecting human health and mortality, food security, forest fires, biodiversity, energy consumption, as well as the production and transportation networks. Seasonal forecasting is a promising tool to help mitigate these impacts on society. Previous studies have highlighted some predictive capacity of seasonal forecast systems for specific strong heatwaves such as those of 2003 and 2010. To our knowledge, this study is thus the first of its kind to systematically assess the prediction skill of heatwaves over Europe in a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system. One major prerequisite to do so is to appropriately define heatwaves. Existing heatwave indices, built to measure heatwave duration and severity, are often designed for specific impacts and thus have limited robustness for an analysis of heatwave variability. In this study, we investigate the seasonal prediction skill of European summer heatwaves in the ECMWF System 5 operational forecast system by means of several dedicated metrics, as well as its added-value compared to a simple statistical model based on the linear trend. We are able to show, for the first time, that seasonal forecasts initialized in early May can provide potentially useful information of summer heatwave propensity, which is the tendency of a season to be predisposed to the occurrence of heatwaves. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Heatwave; Seasonal forecast
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183420
作者单位	CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, UMR3589, Toulouse, France; Group of Meteorology, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; CSP Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Prodhomme C.,Materia S.,Ardilouze C.,et al. Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves[J],2021.
APA	Prodhomme C..,Materia S..,Ardilouze C..,White R.H..,Batté L..,...&García-Serrano J..(2021).Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Prodhomme C.,et al."Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves".Climate Dynamics (2021).