气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Contrasting lightning projection using the lightning potential index adapted in a convection-permitting regional climate model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05791-z
	Contrasting lightning projection using the lightning potential index adapted in a convection-permitting regional climate model
	Brisson E.; Blahak U.; Lucas-Picher P.; Purr C.; Ahrens B.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
英文摘要	Lightning climate change projections show large uncertainties caused by limited empirical knowledge and strong assumptions inherent to coarse-grid climate modeling. This study addresses the latter issue by implementing and applying the lightning potential index parameterization (LPI) into a fine-grid convection-permitting regional climate model (CPM). This setup takes advantage of the explicit representation of deep convection in CPMs and allows for process-oriented LPI inputs such as vertical velocity within convective cells and coexistence of microphysical hydrometeor types, which are known to contribute to charge separation mechanisms. The LPI output is compared to output from a simpler flash rate parameterization, namely the CAPE × PREC parameterization, applied in a non-CPM on a coarser grid. The LPI’s implementation into the regional climate model COSMO-CLM successfully reproduces the observed lightning climatology, including its latitudinal gradient, its daily and hourly probability distributions, and its diurnal and annual cycles. Besides, the simulated temperature dependence of lightning reflects the observed dependency. The LPI outperforms the CAPE × PREC parameterization in all applied diagnostics. Based on this satisfactory evaluation, we used the LPI to a climate change projection under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the domain under investigation centered over Germany, the LPI projects a decrease of 4.8 % in flash rate by the end of the century, in opposition to a projected increase of 17.4 % as projected using the CAPE × PREC parameterization. The future decrease of LPI occurs mostly during the summer afternoons and is related to (i) a change in convection occurrence and (ii) changes in the microphysical mixing. The two parameterizations differ because of different convection occurrences in the CPM and non-CPM and because of changes in the microphysical mixing, which is only represented in the LPI lightning parameterization. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Convection-permitting climate model; COSMO-CLM; Extremes; Lightning; Microphysics
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183412
作者单位	Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany; Centre National de Recherche Meteorologique, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brisson E.,Blahak U.,Lucas-Picher P.,et al. Contrasting lightning projection using the lightning potential index adapted in a convection-permitting regional climate model[J],2021.
APA	Brisson E.,Blahak U.,Lucas-Picher P.,Purr C.,&Ahrens B..(2021).Contrasting lightning projection using the lightning potential index adapted in a convection-permitting regional climate model.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Brisson E.,et al."Contrasting lightning projection using the lightning potential index adapted in a convection-permitting regional climate model".Climate Dynamics (2021).