气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): 天山北坡玛纳斯河355 a来年径流量的重建与分析

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	天山北坡玛纳斯河355 a来年径流量的重建与分析
其他题名	Reconstruction and Analysis of the 355 a Runoff of the Manas River on the North Slopes of Tianshan Mountains
	袁玉江; 喻树龙; 穆桂金; 陈发虎; 龚原; 刘斌; 朱云川; 郭建国
发表日期	2005
ISSN	1000-0240
卷号	27 期号:3 页码:411-417
中文摘要	玛纳斯河树轮年表序列与该河肯斯瓦特水文站年径流总量相关显著, 使用5个树轮年表序列较好地重建出天山北坡玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特水文站355 a来的年径流总量, 解释方差达61%.355 a重建流量变化表明:1)玛纳斯河年径流总量355 a来大致经历了11个偏枯水期和10个偏丰水期, 最长的偏丰水期为1670 -1699年, 持续了30 a,最长的偏枯水期为1949-1994年, 持续了46 a;2)最显著的两个百年流量变枯趋势为1872-1995年和1671 -1775年, 径流量减少率分别为0.19108m3.(10a)-1和0.26108m3.5(10a)-1; 3)在1711-1712年、1872年重建流量发生过两次突变, 前者年径流量由多到少突变, 后者相反; 4)重建流量最丰水的年代为17世纪80-90年代, 比现今偏多17.9%～18.1%,最枯水的年代为19世纪60年代, 比现今偏少16.7%; 5)重建流量存在着58～59、 9.6、27.2、16.9、4.8、 4.3、2.9～3.0 a的变化周期.
英文摘要	Correlation analyses show that correla-tion between the series of the tree-ring chronolo-gies from the Basin of Manas River and the annual runoff at Kensiwate Hydrological Station of the Manas River is significant and the best single cor-relation coefficient is 0. 524, with a significance level of 0.0002. Using five series of tree-ring standard chronologies, a 355-year series of annual runoff can be reconstructed for Kensiwate Hydro-logical Station of the Manas River on the north slopes of Tianshan Mountains, with an explained variance of 61%. Verification from statistical pa-rameters and independent reconstructed runoff data shows that the series of annual runoff reconstruc-ted for the past 355 years is reliable. Analysis of the 355-year reconstructed runoff features indi-cates: 1) There were 11 periods below long-term mean and 10 periods above long-term mean. A-mong them, the longest period above mean was from 1670 to 1699, lasting 30 years, and the lon-gest period below mean was from 1949 to 1994, lasting 46 years. 2)There were two drying periods with the highest significance, lasting more than 100 years, from 1872 to 1995 and from 1671 to 1775, with runoff decreasing rates of 0. 19X108m3 ? (10a)?1 and 0. 26 X 108 m3 ? (10a)"1, respec-tively. 3) There were two abrupt changing periods from 1711 to 1712 and in 1872, the former chan-ging from more to less, but the latter changing from less to more. 4) There were two rich-water decades in the 1660s and the 1670s, with a runoff of 17. 9 ~ 18. 1% more than that at present (the mean is 12. 19 X 108 m3 from 1956 to 2000), and one short-water decade in the 1860s, with a runoff 16.7% less than that at present. 5) The recon-structed runoff has 58 - 59,9.6, 27. 2, 16.9, 4. 8, 4. 3, 2. 9~3. 0 years variation quasi-periods.
关键词	树轮年表天山北坡玛纳斯河径流量重建与分析
英文关键词	tree-ring chronology;north slopes of the Tianshan Mountains;Manas River;reconstruction and analysis of runoff
语种	中文
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CSCD记录号	CSCD:1995421
来源期刊	冰川冻土
来源机构	兰州大学 ; 中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/1834
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	袁玉江,喻树龙,穆桂金,等. 天山北坡玛纳斯河355 a来年径流量的重建与分析[J]. 兰州大学, 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2005,27(3):411-417.
APA	袁玉江.,喻树龙.,穆桂金.,陈发虎.,龚原.,...&郭建国.(2005).天山北坡玛纳斯河355 a来年径流量的重建与分析.冰川冻土,27(3),411-417.
MLA	袁玉江,et al."天山北坡玛纳斯河355 a来年径流量的重建与分析".冰川冻土 27.3(2005):411-417.