气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sources of the internal variability-generated uncertainties in the projection of Northeast Asian summer precipitation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05557-z
	Sources of the internal variability-generated uncertainties in the projection of Northeast Asian summer precipitation
	Piao J.; Chen W.; Chen S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-05-06
英文摘要	Significant uncertainties exist in climate change projections, and these mainly originate from the internal variability of the climate system. Using 40-member ensemble projections of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3, we explored the uncertainties in the projected change of the Northeast Asian summer precipitation during 2006–2060 and examined the sources of the internal variability-generated uncertainties. The projected summer precipitation trends show large diversities from member to member, attributable to the superposition of the internal climate variability on the external forcing. Except for Northeast China, the signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are less than one, indicating the internally induced precipitation trends dominate the externally forced trends over large parts of Northeast Asia. The first mode of the internally induced precipitation trends displays widespread negative trends over Northeast Asia, and the second mode is characterized by a dipole trend pattern between Northeast China and Siberia. The atmospheric circulation trend patterns related to the first and second modes bear resemblances to those related to the Arctic Oscillation and Polar-Eurasian pattern, respectively. A dynamical adjustment was further performed on the summer precipitation trends to reduce the impact of the internal atmospheric variability. After the dynamical adjustment, the level of similarity in the residual precipitation trends across the 40 ensemble members increased significantly. In particular, the SNRs increased notably, with values larger than one over a vast area of Northeast Asia, which was in sharp contrast to values larger than one only being noticeable within Northeast China prior to the adjustment. © 2021, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Arctic Oscillation; Internal variability; Northeast Asian summer precipitation; Polar-Eurasian pattern; Uncertainties
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183380
作者单位	Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China; College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Piao J.,Chen W.,Chen S.. Sources of the internal variability-generated uncertainties in the projection of Northeast Asian summer precipitation[J],2021,56(2021-05-06).
APA	Piao J.,Chen W.,&Chen S..(2021).Sources of the internal variability-generated uncertainties in the projection of Northeast Asian summer precipitation.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-05-06).
MLA	Piao J.,et al."Sources of the internal variability-generated uncertainties in the projection of Northeast Asian summer precipitation".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-05-06(2021).