气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Scope for predicting seasonal variation of the SPCZ with ACCESS-S1

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05550-6
	Scope for predicting seasonal variation of the SPCZ with ACCESS-S1
	Beischer T.A.; Gregory P.; Dayal K.; Brown J.R.; Charles A.N.; Wang W.X.D.; Brown J.N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-05-06
英文摘要	Regional seasonal forecasting requires accurate simulation of the variability of local climate drivers. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a large region of low-level convergence, clouds and precipitation in the South Pacific, whose effects extend as far as northeast Australia (NEA). The location of the SPCZ is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which causes rainfall variability in the region. Correctly simulating the ENSO-SPCZ teleconnection and its interplay with local conditions is essential for improving seasonal rainfall forecasts. Here we analyse the ability of the ACCESS-S1 seasonal forecast system to predict the SPCZ’s relationship with ENSO including its latitudinal shifts, zonal slope and rainfall magnitude between 1990 and 2012 for the December–January–February (DJF) season. We found improvements in ACCESS-S1’s SPCZ prediction capability compared to its predecessor (POAMA), although prediction of the slope is still limited. The inability of ACCESS-S1 to replicate seasons with a strong anti-zonal SPCZ slope is attributed to its atmospheric model. This has implications for accurate seasonal rainfall forecasts for NEA and South Pacific Islands. Future challenges in seasonal prediction facing regional communities and developers of coupled ocean–atmosphere forecast models are discussed. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	ACCESS-S1; El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Rainfall prediction; Rainfall variability; Seasonal variation; South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183353
作者单位	Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific, Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia; CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Sandy Bay, TAS, Australia; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Environment Protection Authority, Carlton, VIC, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beischer T.A.,Gregory P.,Dayal K.,et al. Scope for predicting seasonal variation of the SPCZ with ACCESS-S1[J],2021,56(2021-05-06).
APA	Beischer T.A..,Gregory P..,Dayal K..,Brown J.R..,Charles A.N..,...&Brown J.N..(2021).Scope for predicting seasonal variation of the SPCZ with ACCESS-S1.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-05-06).
MLA	Beischer T.A.,et al."Scope for predicting seasonal variation of the SPCZ with ACCESS-S1".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-05-06(2021).