气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An inter-comparison performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05589-5
	An inter-comparison performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models
	Guimarães B.S.; Coelho C.A.S.; Woolnough S.J.; Kubota P.Y.; Bastarz C.F.; Figueroa S.N.; Bonatti J.P.; de Souza D.C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-07-08
英文摘要	This paper presents an inter-comparison performance assessment of the newly developed Centre for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) model (the Brazilian Atmospheric Model version 1.2, BAM-1.2) against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models from: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Environmental and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The inter-comparison was performed using hindcasts of weekly precipitation anomalies and the daily evolution of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) for 12 extended austral summers (November–March, 1999/2000–2010/2011), leading to a verification sample of 120 hindcasts. The deterministic assessment of the prediction of precipitation anomalies revealed ECMWF as the model presenting the highest (smallest) correlation (root mean squared error, RMSE) values among all examined models. JMA ranked as the second best performing model, followed by ECCC, CPTEC and BoM. The probabilistic assessment for the event “positive precipitation anomaly” revealed that ECMWF presented better discrimination, reliability and resolution when compared to CPTEC and BoM. However, these three models produced overconfident probabilistic predictions. For MJO predictions, CPTEC crosses the 0.5 bivariate correlation threshold at around 19 days when using the mean of 4 ensemble members, presenting similar performance to BoM, JMA and ECCC. Overall, CPTEC proved to be competitive compared to the S2S models investigated, but with respect to ECMWF there is scope to improve the prediction system, likely by a combination of including coupling to an interactive ocean, improving resolution and model parameterization schemes, and better methods for ensemble generation. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Forecast verification; Intraseasonal variability; Madden-Julian oscillation; Sub-seasonal prediction
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183346
作者单位	Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, National Institute for Space Research, Rodovia presidente Dutra, km 39, Cachoeira Paulista, SP 12630-000, Brazil; Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guimarães B.S.,Coelho C.A.S.,Woolnough S.J.,et al. An inter-comparison performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models[J],2021,56(2021-07-08).
APA	Guimarães B.S..,Coelho C.A.S..,Woolnough S.J..,Kubota P.Y..,Bastarz C.F..,...&de Souza D.C..(2021).An inter-comparison performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-07-08).
MLA	Guimarães B.S.,et al."An inter-comparison performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-07-08(2021).