气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-model ensemble projections of extreme ocean wave heights over the Indian ocean

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05578-8
	Multi-model ensemble projections of extreme ocean wave heights over the Indian ocean
	Kaur S.; Kumar P.; Weller E.; Min S.-K.; Jin J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-07-08
英文摘要	Extreme ocean waves can have devastating impacts on many populous coastal regions or offshore islands. Yet, knowledge of how ocean waves are likely to respond to future climate change remains limited. To assess potential increases in risk associated with extreme ocean waves, future changes in seasonal mean and extreme significant wave height (SWH) are examined over the Indian Ocean (IO) using 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models forced with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The seasonal maxima are fit to the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and corresponding 10-year return values are estimated for the present-day (1981–2010) and future periods (2070–2099). Overall, projected changes in IO SWH exhibit noticeable seasonality. Under the high emissions RCP8.5 scenarios, mean and extreme SWH in the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB) are projected to increase during all seasons except December–February (DJF). In the western tropical IO (TIO), mean and extreme SWHs are projected to increase during June–August (JJA) and September–November (SON) in line with the projected circulation changes toward an Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) positive phase-like mean state. Southern IO (SIO) SWHs exhibit a strong zonal shift, with large increases over high-latitudes and decreases over mid-latitudes, which is related to future changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) toward its positive phase. Interestingly, some regions like the western TIO show significantly less increases in SWH under the lower emissions RCP4.5 scenarios, highlighting avoidable future risk through global warming mitigation efforts. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CMIP5 models; Extreme SWH; Future projection of SWH; Indian ocean; IOD and SAM
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183344
作者单位	Department of Applied Sciences, National Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi, 110040, India; School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kaur S.,Kumar P.,Weller E.,et al. Multi-model ensemble projections of extreme ocean wave heights over the Indian ocean[J],2021,56(2021-07-08).
APA	Kaur S.,Kumar P.,Weller E.,Min S.-K.,&Jin J..(2021).Multi-model ensemble projections of extreme ocean wave heights over the Indian ocean.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-07-08).
MLA	Kaur S.,et al."Multi-model ensemble projections of extreme ocean wave heights over the Indian ocean".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-07-08(2021).