气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05606-7
	Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska
	Poujol B.; Prien A.F.; Molina M.J.; Muller C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-07-08
英文摘要	Convective storms can cause economic damage and harm to humans by producing flash floods, lightning and severe weather. While organized convection is well studied in the tropics and mid-latitudes, few studies have focused on the physics and climate change impacts of pan-Arctic convective systems. Using a convection-permitting model we showed in a predecessor study that organized convective storm frequency might triple by the end of the century in Alaska assuming a high emission scenario. The present study assesses the reasons for this rapid increase in organized convection by investigating dynamic and thermodynamic changes within future storms and their environments, in light of canonical existing theories for mid-latitude and tropical deep convection. In a future climate, more moisture originates from Arctic marine basins increasing relative humidity over Alaska due to the loss of sea ice, which is in sharp contrast to lower-latitude land regions that are expected to become drier. This increase in relative humidity favors the onset of organized convection through more unstable thermodynamic environments, increased low-level buoyancy, and weaker downdrafts. Our confidence in these results is increased by showing that these changes can be analytically derived from basic physical laws. This suggests that organized thunderstorms might become more frequent in other pan-Arctic continental regions highlighting the uniqueness and vulnerability of these regions to climate change. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	CAPE; CIN; Convection-permitting modeling; Convective systems; Moisture; Sea ice loss
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183318
作者单位	Département de Géosciences, École Normale Supérieure, PSL. Res. Univ., Paris, France; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; CNRS, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Poujol B.,Prien A.F.,Molina M.J.,et al. Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska[J],2021,56(2021-07-08).
APA	Poujol B.,Prien A.F.,Molina M.J.,&Muller C..(2021).Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-07-08).
MLA	Poujol B.,et al."Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-07-08(2021).