气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05632-z
	Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models
	Mahoney K.; Scott J.D.; Alexander M.; McCrary R.; Hughes M.; Swales D.; Bukovsky M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-09-10
英文摘要	Understanding future precipitation changes is critical for water supply and flood risk applications in the western United States. The North American COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (NA-CORDEX) matrix of global and regional climate models at multiple resolutions (~ 50-km and 25-km grid spacings) is used to evaluate mean monthly precipitation, extreme daily precipitation, and snow water equivalent (SWE) over the western United States, with a sub-regional focus on California. Results indicate significant model spread in mean monthly precipitation in several key water-sensitive areas in both historical and future projections, but suggest model agreement on increasing daily extreme precipitation magnitudes, decreasing seasonal snowpack, and a shortening of the wet season in California in particular. While the beginning and end of the California cool season are projected to dry according to most models, the core of the cool season (December, January, February) shows an overall wetter projected change pattern. Daily cool-season precipitation extremes generally increase for most models, particularly in California in the mid-winter months. Finally, a marked projected decrease in future seasonal SWE is found across all models, accompanied by earlier dates of maximum seasonal SWE, and thus a shortening of the period of snow cover as well. Results are discussed in the context of how the diverse model membership and variable resolutions offered by the NA-CORDEX ensemble can be best leveraged by stakeholders faced with future water planning challenges. © 2021, This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.
英文关键词	Climate change; Extremes; Hydrometeorology; Precipitation; Projections; Western United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183306
作者单位	NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, CIRES University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mahoney K.,Scott J.D.,Alexander M.,et al. Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models[J],2021,56(2021-09-10).
APA	Mahoney K..,Scott J.D..,Alexander M..,McCrary R..,Hughes M..,...&Bukovsky M..(2021).Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-09-10).
MLA	Mahoney K.,et al."Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-09-10(2021).